Spitting distance

On March 27, 2020 Randall Munroe posted the xkcd web cartoon shown above titled 6-foot zone, which is his Guide to the 6’ Social Distancing Zone. He humorously claimed that eight horses could fit inside that circle with you. A discussion at the Explain XKCD web site notes there is not really an Equestrian Design Handbook from the U.S. Forest Service.

Randall had described the zone as a circle with an area of 145 square feet. As shown above, this corresponds to a radius of 6.8 feet. But social distance just is a polite euphemism for quantifying spitting distance. That is how the Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, explained it, as was reported by Josie Adams at The Spinoff on March 17, 2020 in an article titled Covid-19: everything you need to know about social distancing:

“In yesterday’s post-cabinet press conference, the prime minister defined social distancing as remaining outside of spitting distance of those around you. Social distancing is defined by the United States’ Centers for Disease Control as keeping a distance of six feet or two metres between you and another person…”

On November 21, 2017 I blogged about audience sizes in a post titled Is a large audience one where the speaker needs a microphone? Is a small audience where everyone can see a flipchart? In that post I noted, as shown above, that a square 12 feet on a side (with 144 square feet, or almost the same area as that circle), could hold a seated audience of 16 people. I described that audience size as being a boardroom.  

Coronavirus hits us with the Governor of Idaho saying to stay at home for 21 days

On Wednesday, March 25th Governor Brad Little ordered Idahoans to stay home for the next 21 days (see this Tweet from 1:55 PM). There were newspaper articles in both the Idaho Statesman and Idaho Press.

The previous day, March 24, there was a column by libertarian blowhard and lobbyist Wayne Hoffman (previously it was an article on March 20 at his Idaho Freedom Foundation web site) in the Idaho Press titled Legislature fails: Now it’s up to Little to lead with conservative solutions. Wayne whined:

“….Idaho need not do what New York and California are doing: ordering mass business closures, destroying lives and livelihoods. Little need not overreact, as Boise’s mayor has, by severely restricting economic activity.”

The governor instead took more sensible advice. Hoffman’s Idaho Freedom Foundation previously had sent the Governor an arrogant letter on March 17 that misquoted state law and said:

“Idaho Code 48-1001 provides you wide latitude to hold in abeyance those regulations and statutes that “prevent, hinder, or delay necessary action in coping with [an] emergency.” Thus, I write today to provide some suggestions to help Idahoans better cope with the COVID-19 crisis.”

But Title 48 is Monopolies and Trade Practices, and Chapter 10 is the Idaho Telephone Solicitation Act that begins with 48-1001. Perhaps he instead meant to reference Title 46 Militia and Military Affairs. Chapter 10 is the State Disaster Preparedness Act. Under 46-1008 The Governor and Disaster Emergencies it says:

“(5) In addition to any other powers conferred upon the governor by law he may:

(a) Suspend the provisions of any regulations prescribing the conduct of public business that would in any way prevent, hinder, or delay action in coping with the emergency:…”

On March 25th Mr. Hoffman sent the Governor another tinhorn letter with his criticisms of that stay-at-home order. This time he did not reference state code (which even would have permitted a 30-day order). The latest letter contains the following five points and bold text which ignore that the Governor is doing exactly what he can and should do:

"1]  Too sudden.

IFF suggests you postpone the enforcement of this order, so Idahoans have at least 48 hours to prepare. Ask Idahoans to help out in this emergency; don’t impose a mandate. Free people to make good decisions on their own.

2]  Too vague.

Rather than have the government decide what businesses or activities are ‘essential,’ treat all businesses and activities the same.

3]  Too sweeping.

Some jurisdictions recognize, though everyone is at risk, it makes no sense to limit the movement of all people, all ages, when some age brackets are at greater risk.

4]  No exit strategy.

IFF suggests you establish some criteria that businesses can meet to re-open, such as heightened cleanliness standards.

5]  It overrides local control during emergencies.

IFF suggests you give local officials the authority to control the situation on the ground and rescind your order on a case-by-case basis, so that businesses can reopen as local conditions warrant."

On March 26, 2020 there was an editorial in the Lewiston Tribune by Marty Trillhaase titled Little is overreacting to the coronavirus; good. I agree with Marty rather than Wayne.

I am retired and already had been limiting my activities except for grocery shopping trips. The last other trip I made was last Friday to get the oil in my car changed. So, I’m watching a lot of TV and Netflix. For me the biggest hardship is that the Ada Community Library is closed. Before it did,  I borrowed the six-hour Great Courses DVD set on Understanding Nonverbal Communication.  

The cartoon house was adapted from an image by TJFREE at Wikimedia Commons.

There Too – a heartfelt poem from cartoonist Dave Kellett

If you are sitting alone at home feeling down, then please go look at a long poem that Dave Kellett posted in his March 24, 2020 Sheldon cartoon, which includes the following lines:  

“…We feel what you’re feeling as you look in your phone.

Taking in waves of news, and feeling alone.

But I’m here to tell you that we’re all there too.

Every friend that you’ve had! Since you were age two!”

On July 12, 2019 I blogged about another of his cartoons in a post titled Chekhov’s Gun – speechwriting advice from a cartoon.

Phony coronavirus remedies

One response to the current coronavirus crisis is to make a quick buck by relabeling products that already were being sold. On March 9, 2020 there was a press release from the U.S. Food & Drug Administration titled Coronavirus Update: FDA and FTC warn seven companies selling fraudulent products that claim to treat or prevent COVID-19. One of those companies that got a warning letter and took down a web page was Herbal Amy LLC in Nampa, Idaho.

On March 12, 2020 there was another press release from the New York State titled Attorney General James orders Alex Jones to stop selling fake coronavirus treatments. Alex had been peddling toothpaste containing silver.

On March 13, 2020 at Respectful Insolence David Gorski (writing as Orac) had an article titled COVID-19 pandemic: an opportunity for quackery.

On March 17, 2020 there was an article by Keith J. Kelly at the New York Post titled National Enquirer blasted for coronavirus ‘cures’ fake news.

An 1821 etching at the Library of Congress titled Panorama of the Times was recaptioned.

Can Reiki reduce public speaking anxiety?

Page 107 of a 2019 book titled The Healing Power of Reiki claims that: 

“Reiki is a practical remedy for calming your fears and reducing anxiety. Even if you are not ordinarily the anxious type, using Reiki as a calming agent is a good idea. With the help of Reiki, you may be able to overcome certain phobias, such as the fear of public speaking, death, flying, hospitals, darkness, water, heights, poverty, thunderstorms, or riding in elevators.”

But a web page at the Rational Wiki says:

“Reiki is a pseudoscientific energy therapy that claims a long and venerable tradition, although it was invented from whole cloth in 1922. It is based on the following beliefs:

There is a universal and inexhaustible spiritual energy which can be used for healing purposes.

Through an attunement process carried out by a Reiki Master, any person can gain access to this energy.

This energy will flow through the Reiki Master’s hands when they place their hands near the patient.

As the energy has human-like intelligence, there is no need for diagnosis – the energy will automatically judge the disease and heal the patient.”

Similarly, the Wikipedia page about Reiki dismissively says:

“Reiki is a pseudoscience.”

An article by Stephen Barrett at Quackwatch on August 22, 2015 is titled Reiki is nonsense. A recent article by Jonathan Jarry at the McGill Office of Science and Society on February 19, 2020 titled Should we take Reiki seriously? concluded we should not, so it likely doesn’t reduce anxiety.

Cartoon about how filler words when finishing a presentation sound more impressive in Latin

A recent Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal cartoon had the following captions:

“HOW YOU PLAN TO END TALKS: ‘And thus the conclusion is self-evident.’

HOW YOU ALWAYS END TALKS: ‘Uh. So. Yeah.’

SOLUTION - CONVERT IT TO LATIN: ‘Vah. Sic. Etiam.’ “

Similarly, an article by Betsy Russell in the Idaho Press on March 20, 2020 about the Idaho legislature concluding their session was titled House adjourns sine die, at 9:18 a.m. The impressive-sounding Latin phrase ‘sine die’ just means indefinitely, or as the Merriam-Webster dictionary says less tersely:

“without any future date being designated (as for resumption).”

What are Americans doing about coronavirus, and who do they trust for information?

At USA Today on March 12, 2020 there is an article by Susan Page and Joel Shannon titled Exclusive poll: Americans are more worried about finances than their health amid coronavirus outbreak. It discusses results from Ipsos described in detail here. They surveyed 1005 adults -  408 Republicans, 420 Democrats, and 109 Independents. As is shown above, 47% thought there was a threat to both the global economy and stock market, 34% thought there was a threat to the United States, but only 15% thought there was a threat to them personally.

 The poll asked about nine things and None of the Above that people had already done or had plans to do about coronavirus. As shown above in a pair of charts, the answers for done (or planned were very similar for the top five. 54% had (and 59% planned) washing hands frequently. 35% did (and 30% planned) none of the above. 18% decided (and 25% planned) to stop attending social events. 13% shifted shopping to online (and 18% planned to). 11% canceled a personal trip (and 17% planned to).  

Who do people trust as information providers? As shown above in a chart 79% trust the Centers for Disease Control (almost 4 out of 5) and 71% trust the World Health Organization. 53% trust their state governor. Just 39% trust the news media or Vice President Pence, 38% trust President Trump, and only 35% trust the U. S. Congress.  

Democrats and Republicans have large differences in rankings for who they trust. Two charts are shown above. Both have a high trust in the Centers for Disease Control – 86% for Democrats and 79% for Republicans. 86% of Democrats also trust the World Health Organization, but only 64% of Republicans do. 57% of Democrats trust their state governor, as do 54% of Republicans.  Only 16% of Democrats trust the Vice President and only 14% trust the President.  But 72% of Republicans trust the President and  71% trust the Vice President. 56% of Democrats trust the news media, but only 23% of Republicans do. Only 39% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans trust the U.S. Congress.   

Another chart shows rankings for the much smaller group of Independents. 68% trust the Centers for Disease Control and 63% trust the World Health Organization

Fear of a pandemic is more common in the U.S. than a fear of public speaking

Some coaches keep on trying to tell us that speaking in public is the number one fear, although a recent U. S. series of four annual surveys says otherwise. For example, on June 6, 2019 at ThriveGlobal an article by Michelle Tillis Lederman titled Overcome Your Public Speaking Fear opened by asking:

“Did you know that the #1 fear across society is public speaking? Death and snakes round out the top 3.”

Right now that alleged fear is not at the top of our minds. A pandemic virus is. On March 11, 2020 an article at CNBC proclaimed that the World Health Organization declares the coronavirus outbreak a global pandemic. As shown above via a table, in the 2018 Chapman Survey of American Fears six pandemic-related fears had higher percentages than the fear of public speaking.

What about earlier surveys? As shown above in a graph, from 2015 through 2018 a pandemic or a major epidemic also was feared by a higher percentage than public speaking was (and had a lower ranking). Back in 2014 a different more future-related question was asked – “How worried are you that a pandemic or a major epidemic could occur in the United Sates over the next 25 years?” But the 33.6% for worried fortuitously was very close to the 34.3% for feared in 2015.

Be afraid, be very afraid. But do it anyway, do it anyway.

That is the joyous chorus from the new single, Be Afraid, from Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit. It has a similar sentiment to the empowering title of a 1987 book by the late Susan Jeffers, Feel the Fear … and Do It Anyway.

The first verse of that song begins:

“We’ve been testing you, and you failed

 To see how long that you could sit with the truth, but you bailed”

The third verse begins:

“We don’t take requests, we won’t shut up and sing

 Tell the truth enough, you’ll find it rhymes with everything”

An image of a tightrope walker at Taft Point in Yosemite National Park came from Wikimedia Commons.

How not to communicate during a real crisis like the coronavirus

Randall Munroe’s xkcd web comic for March 9, 2020 about a scientific briefing (shown above) neatly sums up the Trump administration attitude toward the coronavirus.   

Back on February 26, President Trump held a 54-minute press conference on the coronavirus. On March 2, 2020 at the Washington Post there was an article titled Inside Trump’s frantic attempts to minimize the coronavirus crisis.

On March 10, 2020 the conservative National Review finally had an editorial article titled President Trump needs to step up on the coronavirus. In the sixth paragraph they stated the obvious:

“….The failures of leadership at the top, however, show no sign of being corrected.  In a serious public-health crisis, the public has a right to expect the government’s chief executive to lead in a number of crucial ways: by prioritizing the problem properly, by deferring to subject matter experts when appropriate while making key decisions in informed and sensible ways, by providing honest and careful information to the country, by calming fears and setting expectations, and by addressing mistakes and setbacks.

Trump so far hasn’t passed muster on any of these metrics. He resisted making the response to the epidemic a priority for as long as he could – refusing briefings, downplaying the problem, and wasting precious time. He has failed to properly empower his subordinates and refused to trust the information they provided him – often offering up unsubstantiated claims and figures from cable television instead. He has spoken about the crisis in crude political and personal terms. He has stood in the way of public understanding of the plausible course of the epidemic, trafficking instead in dismissive clichés. He has denied his administration’s missteps, making it more difficult to address them.  

This presidential behavior is all too familiar. It is how he has gotten through scandals and fiascos for more than three years in office. But those were all essentially political in nature, and most were self-created. The country has been lucky in the Trump era, largely avoiding the sorts of major, unforeseen crises that make the greatest demands of the modern presidency. That luck has now run out, and this demands a new level of seriousness from the president and those around him.

President Trump needs to rise to this challenge. His partisan adversaries are sure he can’t. We hope he proves them wrong.”

If the Trump administration had bothered to ask the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) whether they had any advice about crisis communication, then they would have been pointed to lots of very useful information. CDC has a web page about Crisis and Emergency Communication (CERC) with a link to a 462-page manual (from 2014) and a succinct Pocket Card, (see page 174 in the manual) the front of which is shown above. Back on May 30, 2014 I blogged about Remembering what is important in crisis communication – the CDC CERC pocket or emergency card.

On December 31, 2019 there was an article by Daniel Dale at CNN Politics titled A month-by-month look at Donald Trump’s top lies of 2019. He counted over 2,700 false claims, or about 7.4 per day. Based on that record of not being right, I doubt that the president can become credible. Rather than listen to the president, I will look at the coronavirus page at the CDC web site for advice - including their Steps to Prevent Illness.

UPDATE March 13, 2020

On the evening of Wednesday March 11, 2020 President Trump spoke from the White House. An article on  March 12, 2020 at the Washington Post titled Ten minutes at the teleprompter: Inside Trump’s failed attempt to calm coronavirus fears described what happened:

“In the most scripted of presidential settings, a prime-time televised address to the nation, President Trump decided to ad-lib – and his errors triggered a market meltdown, panicked travelers overseas and crystallized for his critics just how dangerously he has fumbled his management of the coronavirus.

Even Trump – a man practically allergic to admitting mistakes – knew he’d screwed up by declaring Wednesday night that his ban on travel from Europe would include cargo and trade, and acknowledged as much to aides in the Oval Office as soon as he’d finished speaking, according to one senior administration official and a second person, both with knowledge of the episode.

Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and senior adviser who has seized control of some aspects of the government’s coronavirus response, reassured Trump that aides would correct his misstatement, four administration officials said, and they scrambled to do just that. The president also told staffers to make sure other countries did not believe trade would be affected, and even sent a cleanup tweet of his own: ‘The restriction stops people not goods,’ he wrote.

Other administration officials rushed to alert the public that U.S. citizens would be exempt from the travel ban, after scores of Americans, upon digesting Trump’s speech, phoned government offices and raced to airports in Europe out of concern that they would not be able to fly home.

Trump’s 10-minute Oval Office address Wednesday night reflected not only his handling of the coronavirus crisis but, in some ways, much of his presidency. It was riddled with errors, nationalist and xenophobic in tone, limited in its empathy, and boastful of both his own decisions and the supremacy of the nation he leads.

Futures for the Dow Jones industrial average fell in real time with virtually each word Trump uttered, signaling a lack of confidence among investors that he had control of the crisis and previewing another bloodbath once the markets opened Thursday morning.

Trump – who believed that by giving the speech he would appear in command and that his remarks would reassure financial markets and the country – was in ‘an unusually foul mood’ and sounded at times ‘apoplectic’ on Thursday as he watched stocks tumble and digested widespread criticism of his speech, according to a former senior administration official briefed on his private conversations.

This official, like many others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive information or make candid assessments.

Ben Rhodes, who served as a senior White House aide and helped former president Barack Obama script and manage his responses to numerous crises, predicted that Wednesday night’s address will stand as ‘the moment people associate with the fact that Donald Trump failed the biggest test of his presidency.’

‘I think we’ll look back on this as a defining moment of the Trump presidency because it speaks to larger concerns that people already had about Trump – that he can’t tell the truth, that he doesn’t value expertise, that he doesn’t take the presidency seriously enough,’ Rhodes said.”    

Blades on your ceiling fan should not fly off like a pair of dull machetes

Because I used to do failure analysis I occasionally look at the product recalls web page for the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). On February 13, 2020 there was one titled Fanim Industries recalls Harbor Breeze Santa Anna ceiling fan due to injury hazard: sold exclusively at Lowes stores. They said blade holders on the fan can break and either of the two blades can fly off. 70,000 fans are being recalled because there were 210 reports of blades ejecting or breaking and 10 reports of blades hitting customers.

The installation guide shows that each blade holder arm (red) is attached to the motor flywheel via two screws. Initial assembly instructions warn you to make sure the bottom edge of the blade holder arm is fully seated against the flywheel surface of the motor. Then final assembly instructions say each blade (yellow) is attached to a blade holder via three washer-head screws.

Those screws normally should not loosen. On May 6, 2018 I blogged about how Driverless cars don’t need steering wheels – but the rest of us sure do. That recall was because a locking feature had been improperly applied. An article from 2015 by Michael Kaas at Fastening + Fixing Magazine titled Stop loosening of fasteners shows several options. A more detailed discussion is found in NASA STD 5020 Requirements for threaded fastening systems in spaceflight hardware. See Appendix B, best practices for locking features.

Want to look silly in the first paragraph of your marketing article?

The first paragraph of an article on March 5, 2020 from Penna Powers at the KSL web site titled Utah CEO explains single trait that can lead to career goal success by their CEO Mike Brian stated that:

“…Research from Chapman University found 26% of Americans have a fear of public speaking. In several research projects conducted over decades, the number one fear for most people is public speaking.”

But when you check his reference to the 2018 Chapman Survey of American Fears, you will find that fear of public speaking ranked #59 rather than #1. As shown above in a graph from my January 27, 2020 blog post titled Why do we often hear about the 2014 Chapman Survey of American Fears, but not about the other four done in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018? it also ranked far below #1 in the previous three years. Oops! Item #76 on the list was Being fooled by 'fake' news!

Similarly, the first sentence of an article by Pearl Kim on March 3, 2020 at GovLoop titled 5 best resources to enhance your public speaking was:

"According to the 2018 Chapman Survey of American Fears, public speaking ranked higher than reptiles, large volcanic eruptions, and technology that people don't understand." 

Another generic comment

I enjoy receiving feedback, and occasionally get useful comments on my blog posts. But I detest getting totally generic comments like the following one (and do not put them up):

“Hello! Thanks for sharing a knowledgeable post. I have read it very carefully. I just found this post very effective to make the concept strengthen. I wanted to request you please visit my website. I also post the knowledgeable information.”  

A strong ending is very persuasive

On February 26, 2020 there was a hilarious F Minus cartoon by Tony Carrillo captioned:

“Jen, that presentation made almost no sense at all, but it finished so strong I’ve decided to push ahead with your plan.”

The most recently presented information may be remembered best, as Kendra Cherry discussed at Verywellmind in an article on April 23, 2019 titled What is the Recency Effect?

A cartoon of a flirty woman with money was adapted from this one at Wikimedia Commons.

Spouting Nonsense: a bogus statistic in an article saying to Communicate Like Your Life Depends On It

At Medium on December 10, 2019 there is a long article by Greg Cheek titled Communicate Like Your Life Depends On It. That title set a very high standard which he did not live up to. In his thirteenth section titled Stage Fright, Communication Apprehension, and Plain Nervousness Greg claimed:

“In a recent Gallup poll, Americans were asked to list their greatest fears. Forty percent identified speaking before a group as a top fear, exceeded only by fifty-one percent who said they were afraid of snakes. In comparison, only twenty-eight percent said they were afraid of dying. In most polls, speechmaking and speaking in front of a group of people is tops in provoking anxiety (stage fright).”

On March 24, 2018 I had blogged about how to be careful and Don’t trust superficial research. In that post I discussed another silly claim that the 2001 Gallup poll had asked about greatest fears – which it really had not. The Gallup poll was discussed in a well-known March 19, 2001 article by Geoffrey Brewer titled Snakes Top List of Americans’ Fears. It just asked about fears for 13 situations, and as shown above in a bar chart, dying never was mentioned. 2001 also was nineteen years ago, which is not exactly recent. So, where had that bogus 28% for dying come from? Not from Gallup, who last researched about fear of dying in a Mirror of America survey in November 1990 - and found 23%. 

On March 3, 2020 I blogged about how An obscure UK survey from 2005 found public speaking was the most common fear. The 28% for dying came from a YouGov survey as shown in a second bar chart. It was four years later than the Gallup poll, and done in Great Britain rather than the U.S. Obviously Mr. Cheek never bothered to check the Gallup article.

How had he gotten so confused? Greg apparently read secondhand or thirdhand information about a section from the first chapter in the tenth edition (2009) of Stephen E. Lucas’s book The Art of Public Speaking.  On page 9, he states that:

“If you are worrying about stage fright, you may feel better knowing that you are not alone. A 2001 Gallup Poll asked Americans to list their greatest fears. Forty percent identified speaking before a group as their top fear, exceeded only by the 51 percent who said they were afraid of snakes. A 2005 survey produced similar results, with 42 percent of respondents being terrified by the prospect of speaking in public. In comparison, only 28 percent said they were afraid of dying. (Reference #6).”

Reference #6 on page N-1 is to two different articles:

“Geoffrey Brewer, ‘Snakes Top List of Americans’ Fears,’ Gallup News Service, February 2001; Alex Blyth, ‘How to Get the Most Out of Public Speaking Training,’ Training Magazine (June 14, 2006), p.7”

For careless and superficial research resulting in his spouting nonsense, I award Greg Cheek a Spoutly.