Tuesday, November 3, 2026

An interesting but incomplete 2026 book by Alex Davies titled Kobuk the Destroyer and other tales from the wild, unseen world of test engineering


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

There is an interesting but incomplete 2026 book by Alex Davies titled Kobuk the Destroyer and other tales from the wild, unseen world of test engineering. (Kobuk is a problem grizzly bear at the Grizzly & Wolf Discovery Center, who is an expert at defeating products that should be bear-resistant). Google Books has a preview from this book. Alex begins describing it on page 5:

 

“Implementing an idea hinges on, among other things, proving that whatever ends up in the consumer’s hands will actually work, reliably and safely. That the thing will hold its form and perform its function for years or decades. That when it breaks, it won’t send razor-edged shards flying. That it will blunt the consequences of the inevitable errors of the humans that use it, interact well with its environment, and work in a way that its users expect and desire. Doing all that requires the ability to foresee and forestall the novel modes of failure that arrive with every innovation. That work falls most often not to the inventor, but to the test engineer.

 

The test engineer gets little attention in a world that lionizes inventors, and that’s a shame – not just because their work involves chicken cannons, flamethrowers, and mischievous grizzly bears, and not just because they rely on the same ingenuity, foresight, and creativity that fits the inventor stereotype. It’s a shame because they are the ultimate fixers, the people who turn inventions into products by earning and rewarding the public’s trust.

 

This book is about their work as it plays out in myriad times and places, with manifold products and test regimes and industries. It’s about the people and the machines and the laboratories and the standards and the cultural mores, the measurement and mimicry of reality, the passing of judgment, and the occasional shrug of the shoulders in the face of unending complexity. It’s about approximating the inevitable and the near impossible: how pilots will mix up instrument controls and how turbulence might snap plane wings. It’s about avoiding not just the obvious disasters (the levee that crumbles) but the equally catastrophic and stupefying ones (the tsunami that overtops the dam). It’s about creating systems for doing that work – systems that, like the people who make them, are fallible but can deliver success despite their imperfections.

 

It's about failure and failure and failure and fleeting interregnums of success. It’s about how knowledge is formed, how rules are written and enforced, how good things are made and bad things made good. It’s about accepting – whether due to pain, disaster, or a honey-smeared bear snout – that our best efforts are not always good enough. It’s about how we adapt to that fact by balancing risk against reward, utility against safety, progress against hesitancy.

 

It's about how we construct our world, because testing forms the backstory and backbone of every thing in our lives.” 

 

And on page 15 he continues:

 

“THE BEST PATH TO SUCH AN ENLIGHTENMENT IS NOT TO STUDY one product after another – cars, planes, toys, and so on – but to break this work down by the kinds of failure that test engineers regularly confront and plan for. We’ll look at six different concepts, each of which encapsulates ways in which a product can boom or bust.

 

The first is limits, in which testing determines strength and durability – like whether a bridge can withstand being hit by a container ship, or whether your space bar will give out before your laptop does. The second is fool-proofing, which is about preventing user error, from kids getting into medicine bottles to lawn mowers lopping off toes. When failure does strike – when cars crash and fires start – disintegration testing ensures that the product in question minimizes the damage. Scale comes into play when the focus shifts from one product to many, where ground beef is scanned for disease and vaccines checked for impurities. Our penultimate chapter is about dynamics, which considers how a product will impact the world around it, and vice versa. This is where Formula I cars capture the wind and engineers redirect the Mississippi River to buoy the sinking Louisiana coastline. Finally, we’ll close with intention. This trickiest of all concepts asks not whether a product functions as it’s designed to, but whether it produces the desired result. As new technologies – artificial intelligence chief among them- push everyone into a new frontier, we’ll see how our pioneering test engineers keep up by combining old knowledge with new techniques.”

 

Chapter titles and their starting pages are:

 

Introduction – Bear Contact Time 1

Chapter 1 – Limits 17

Chapter 2 – Fool-Proofing 49

Chapter 3 – Disintegration 79

Chapter 4 – Scale 117

Chapter 5 – Dynamics 145

Chapter 6 – Intention 175

Conclusion – The Total Test Environment 197

 

What is missing from this book? Alex mentions some standards organizations – Underwriters Laboratory (UL), the American National Standards Institute (ANSI), the U. S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), and very briefly the Society of Automotive Engineers (now SAE International).

 

But he does not mention either what was the American Society for Testing and Materials (now ASTM International) or the International Standards Organization (ISO). Standards produced by these organizations define a wide variety of products. And typically, a product standard cross-references a constellation of other standards.

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

If you look for the strongest standard steel bolts or cap screws at stores like Home Depot or Lowes, you will find them in a drawer labeled Grade 8. As shown above, typically they will have a bronze color from zinc plating, and the head will have six lines in a hexagonal pattern to identify them, along with a manufacturer mark (in this case SJ). The standard for them is SAE J429: Mechanical and Material Requirements for Externally Threaded Fasteners (most recently dated 2014-05-06). You can read a pdf file of the 1999 version here. That standard defines a very specific recipe for making Grade 8 fasteners – their composition, processes and the resultant properties. The description summary says:

 

“This SAE Standard covers the mechanical and material requirements for inch-series steel bolts, screws, studs, screws for sems, and U-bolts in sizes to 1-1/2 in. inclusive.

 

The term ‘stud’ as referred to herein applies to a cylindrical rod of moderate length threaded on either one or both ends or throughout its entire length. It does not apply to headed, collared, or similar products which are more closely characterized by requirements shown herein for bolts.

 

The mechanical properties included in Table 1 were compiled at an ambient temperature of approximately 20 °C (68 °F). These properties are valid within a temperature range which depends upon the material grade used and thermal and mechanical processing. Other properties such as fatigue behavior, corrosion resistance, impact properties, etc., are beyond the scope of this document and responsibility for ensuring the acceptability of the product for applications where conditions warrant consideration of these other properties shall be borne by the end user.”

 

J429 cross references the following six other SAE standards:

 

SAE J403: Chemical Compositions of SAE Carbon Steels.

SAE J404: Chemical Composition of SAE Alloy Steels.

SAE J409: Product Analysis – Permissible Variations from Specified Chemical Analysis of a Heat or Cast of Steel.

SAE J123: Surface Discontinuities on Bolts, Screws, and Studs.

SAE J417: Hardness Tests and Hardness Number Conversions.

SAE J121: Decarburization in Hardened and Tempered Unified Threaded Fasteners.

 

J429 defines a very specific recipe for making Grade 8 bolts. The chemical composition should allow heat treatment by quenching to produce a minimum of ninety percent martensite (monitored via the as-quenched hardness). Then the fasteners are tempered at a minimum of 800 oF. Threads are formed by rolling.

 

Grade 8 has a minimum yield strength of 130,000 psi, and a minimum tensile strength of 150,000 psi. Elongation is a minimum of 12%, and reduction in area is a minimum of 35%. And the Rockwell hardness range is 33 HRC to 39 HRC. (39 HRC converts to a maximum tensile strength of 177,000 psi).

 

The next lower bolt grade (also quenched and tempered) is Grade 5, which is denoted by a head with three lines in a triangular pattern. Grade 5 has a minimum yield strength of 92,000 psi, and a minimum tensile strength of 120,000 psi. Elongation is a minimum of 14%, and reduction in area is a minimum of 35%. Rockwell hardness range is 25 HRC to 34 HRC. (34 HRC converts to a maximum tensile strength of 152,000 psi).

 

Back on November 4, 2017 I blogged about Ten years of experience, or one year’s experience ten times? In that post I discussed SAE Standard J1401 – Road Vehicle – Hydraulic Brake Hose Assembles for Use with Nonpetroleum-Base Hydraulic Fluids. It included incorporating marker yarns (to identify the hose manufacturer) along with the reinforcing braid. And using marker yarns was spread to other types of hoses.  

 

The grizzly bear image came from Wikimedia Commons.

 

 

Monday, November 2, 2026

In the twelfth Chapman Survey of American Fears for 2026 public speaking was feared by just 28.9% of adults and ranked #51 out of 79 fears



On October 20, 2026 there is a press release by by Robert Hitchcock at Chapman News titled AI Enters Americans’ Top 10 Fears in Chapman’s 2026 Survey. Artificial Intelligence (AI) Harming the Political Process was feared by 51.9% and ranked at #3, while Artificial Intelligence (AI) Hurting the economy was feared by 49.7% and ranked at #7. My bar chart with the 25 Most Common Fears is shown above. It doesn’t include public speaking.  

 

The twelfth survey in this series was conducted by Chapman’s Wilkinson College of Arts, Humanities, and Social Sciences. NORC at the University of Chicago, a nonpartisan research organization, surveyed a random national sample with 1,221 adults online from April 7 to April 21, 2026, using its probability-based AmeriSpeak panel. They asked about 79 different fears. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. Their 23-page pdf Project Methods and Transparency Report is here. But it is much less transparent than the Methodology Reports from previous years, and does not list all of the detailed percentages from the questions.

 


 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is a ten-page pdf article describing the key findings from the survey. It includes a list of the Top 10 Fears Of 2026. As usual, the top fear was Corrupt Government Officials – 61.1%. And a three-page pdf article has The Complete List of Fears 2026 ranked by the percentages afraid or very afraid. This article has typographical errors #34 and #35 are listed twice, and #77 is omitted. My bar charts for the Next 25 Fears and the Last 29 Fears are shown above. Note that Public Speaking was feared by just 28.9% and only ranked at #51.  

 

Another three-page pdf article has The Complete List of Fears 2026 (Alphabetical Order). And yet another six-page pdf article is titled The Chapman University Survey of American Fears Wave 11 (2025) and Wave 12 (2026) Compared.

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In the 2026 survey there were eight questions about fears involving Artificial Intelligence, one of which was Artificial Intelligence (AI) Replacing People in the Workplace (feared by 42% and ranked at #23). That question also was asked in 2024 where it was feared by 46.7%, and in 2025 where it was feared by 49.1%. And, way back in the 2015 survey they asked about People Trusting Artificial Intelligence to Do Work – 24.9% and Artificial Intelligence – 21.4%. All those fears are shown above in a bar chart.

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Three different questions have been asked about Fear of Replacing People in the Chapman surveys. As shown above in a bar chart, in 2015 it was by Robots, on 2016 to 2023 it was by Computers, and in 2024 through 2026 it was by Artificial Intelligence (AI).   

 

 

Sunday, November 1, 2026

A very useful article describing ten simple rules for preparing and delivering effective funding pitches in competitive grant applications


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is a very useful article by Andy Göbel and Tilman D. Rachner at PLoS Computational Biology on October 7, 2026 which is titled Ten simple rules for preparing and delivering effective funding pitches in competitive grant applications.

 

Those rules are to:

 

 1]  Analyze the review panel

 2]  Define your key messages

 3]  Describe the scientific problem & present the solution

 4]  Collect convincing arguments

 5]  Make use of a compelling structure

 6]  Craft your visual presentation

 7]  Get ready for a productive discussion

 8]  Practice, rehearse, and get feedback

 9]  Prepare yourself

10] Deliver an effective pitch

 

That article contains the following seven figures:

 

Figure 1. Features and goals of scientific funding pitches.

Figure 2. Defining the scientific problem.

Figure 3. The FINER Criteria [Feasible, Interesting, Novel, Ethical, Relevant]

Figure 4. The Speech Structure Building.

Figure 5. Options on how to open and close your funding pitch.

Figure 6. How to craft effective presentation slides.

Figure 7. Ten simple rules for effective funding pitches.

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Unfortunately, when you click on a figure to “Open in a new tab,” you get directed through a browser check like “Select all squares with bicycles.” So, I have shown Figure 7 above. It succinctly summarizes the entire article. Click on it to see a larger version.

 

On September 7, 2025 I blogged about Ten simple rules for improving communication among scientists.

    

An image of Reggie Jackson pitching came from Wikimedia Commons.

 

 

Saturday, October 31, 2026

On October 29, 2026 there were 83,780 page views at this blog.


 

 

 

 

 

The chart shown above has daily page views at this blog for the past three months. On October 29, 2026 there was a new all-time record of 83,780 page views.

 

Friday, October 30, 2026

Two excellent articles about speechwriting by Colin Raunig


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are two excellent articles about writing speeches for other people by Colin Raunig at his Substack. Both are organized into ten chapters. One on October 4, 2026 is just titled The Speechwriter, and the other on October 17, 2026 is titled The Craft of Speechwriting. Chapter titles and links are as follows:

 

The Speechwriter

Chapter 1: Humility

Chapter 2: Curiosity/Asking Good Questions  

Chapter 3: Listening

Chapter 4: Being a Good Teammate

Chapter 5: Adaptability

Chapter 6: Working with Senior Leaders

Chapter 7: Learning Quickly

Chapter 8: Empathy

Chapter 9: Judgement

Chapter 10: Service

 

The Craft of Speechwriting

Chapter 1: Purpose Before Prose

Chapter 2: Know the Audience

Chapter 3: Getting Smart Fast

Chapter 4: What Makes a Good Question

Chapter 5: Finding the Argument

Chapter 6: Building the Structure

Chapter 7: The First and Last Words

Chapter 8: Writing for the Ear

Chapter 9: Writing in Someone Else’s Voice

Chapter 10: The Speech Isn’t Finished When You Hit Send

 

Colin has a web site and a LinkedIn page. He graduated from the U.S. Naval Academy with a BS in Engineering. Then he earned his wings and served on an E-6B Mercury (a nuclear command-and-control aircraft) as a Naval Fight Officer. Also, he learned Japanese and spent two years at the Japanese Naval Academy as a liaison and teacher.  And he has an MFA in Literature-Creative Writing earned at Colorado State University.

 

The woman typing was cropped from this image at the Library of Congress.

 

 

Wednesday, October 28, 2026

31 brief articles in Toastmaster magazine from the last two decades about creating or answering Table Topics questions


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table Topics is the impromptu speaking section in a Toastmasters club meeting where members provide one-to-two minutes answers to questions. In the January 2022 issue of Toastmaster magazine there is a brief article by Greg Lewis on pages 26 and 27 about both creating and answering Table Topics questions which is titled The Two Sides of Table Topics.

 

There are another fourteen brief articles about creating questions. Ten of them take up just a single page, and the other four are two pages long. In reverse chronological order they are as follows:  

 

One by Laura Mishkind in May 2026 on page 6 is titled Family, Friends, and Fast Thinking.

 

A second in April 2026 on page 6 is titled Get to Know Your Members Through Table Topics.

 

A third by Mackenzie Eldred in December 2025 on pages 10 and 11 is titled Celebrate With Table Topics.

 

A fourth by Bill Brown in January 2025 on page 9 is titled Table Topics Dilemmas – Solved.

 

A fifth by the Toastmaster magazine staff in October 2024 on pages 16 and 17 is titled Table Topics From History.

 

A sixth in March 2021 on page 18 is titled Online Table topics Ideas.

 

A seventh by Silvana Clark in October 2020 on pages 24 and 25 is titled Creative Tips for the Topicsmaster.

 

An eighth by Beverly Wise, also in October 2020, on page 25 is titled A Few More Table Topics Ideas,

 

A ninth by Cheryl Andrichuk in September 2019 on page 28 is titled Tackling the Topicsmaster Role.

 

A tenth by Allan Kaufman and Allan Misch in December 2018 on pages 14 and 15 is titled Shake Up Table Topics Ideas With Creative Ideas.

 

An eleventh by Steve Chen, also in December 2018 on page 15 is titled 9 Fun Table Topics Ideas.

 

A twelfth by Bill Brown in January 2018 on page 21 is titled Being the Best Table Topicsmaster.

 

A thirteenth by Allan Kaufman and Allan Misch in March 2017 on page 24 is titled 8 Tips for Table Topics.

 

And a fourteenth by Craig Harrison June 2014 on page 24 is titled When You’re the Topicmaster.

 

On May 15, 2024 I blogged about My workshop presentation at the 2024 District 15 Toastmasters Conference on May 18, 2024 about Creating or Finding Great Table Topics Questions.

 

And there are another sixteen brief magazine articles about answering questions. Six of them take up just a single page, and another six are two pages long. In reverse chronological order they are as follows:  

 

One by Bill Brown in September 2025 on page 9 is titled Pushing Through Table Topics and Pathways.

 

A second by Peggy Beach in October 2020 on pages 22 to 24 is titled Spontaneous Speaking.

 

A third in February 2019 on page 7 is titled Suiting Up for Table Topics.

 

A fourth by Bill Brown in October 2017 on page 21 is titled Let’s Talk Table Topics.

 

A fifth by Christopher Cox in July 2017 on page 21 is titled 10 Tips for Terrific Table Topics.

 

A sixth by Maureen Zappala in February 2016 on pages 22 to 25 is titled A Table Topics Workout.

 

A seventh by Thomas Piccin in June 2014 on pages 20 and 21 is titled Speaking Off the Cuff.

 

An eighth by Craig Harrison also in June 2014 on pages 22 to 25 is titled Tactics for Tackling Table Topics.

 

A ninth by Russell Isaacson in April 2012 on pages 14 and 15 is titled Take Control of Table Topics.

 

A tenth by Craig Harrison in February 2010 on pages 22 to 25 and 29 is titled Turning the Tables on Table Topics.

 

An eleventh by Bob Lea in April 2008 on page 20 and 21 is titled Mastering Table Topics.

 

A twelfth by Jack M. Kantola in December 2006 on pages 8 to 10 is titled Tune Up Your Table Topics.

 

A thirteenth by Bill Monsour, also in December 2006, on page 11 is titled Table Topics: A Question of Mind Over Matter.

 

A fourteenth by Linda M. Isaacs, again in December 2006, on pages 12 and 13, is titled Graduating from Table Topics 101.

 

A fifteenth by Craig Harrison on August 2006 on page 22 is titled Two-Minute Tales!

 

A sixteenth by Rajiv Ramaratnam in April 2006 on pages 22 and 23 is titled Conquer Table Topics Phobia.

 

The wooden pedestal table came from OpenClipArt.

 

 

Monday, October 26, 2026

There are six Laws of Holes


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

There is a proverb about quitting, called the Law of Holes, that has its own Wikipedia page. During the 1980s in the United Kingdom it was used by the politician Denis Healey. The law is that (as shown above):

 

“If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.”

 

That really was just the First Law of Holes. (But why is then implied rather than explicitly stated?) I looked around further and found that there are another five Laws of Holes.

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As shown above, the Second Law of Holes is to:

 

 “Remember that you are still in a hole”

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And, the Third Law of Holes is to:

 

“Get help to bring a ladder so you can climb out.”

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Fourth Law of Holes is that:

 

“If you can’t get help, cut steps and climb out yourself.”  

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The preventive Fifth Law of Holes is to:

 

 "Fill in the hole, so no one else can fall into it.”

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Finally, the Sixth Law of Holes is: 

 

“If you can’t fill the hole, put warning signs around it.

 

There is a 2026 book by Lindsay Krouse titled The Case for Quitting: The surprising benefits of opting out. Her Chapter 9 is titled The Law of Holes. On page 148 she says that:

 

“Escalation of commitment can quickly lead us to collide head-on with what an economist once described to me as ‘the law of holes,’ which sounds obvious by often ignored: ‘If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.’ “

 

And on page 161 she continues:

 

“Quitting was the first step. Then she discovered the second Law of Holes (‘Remember, you are still in a hole.’).”

 

There is an article by Paul Synnott at LinkedIn Pulse on November 24, 2022 titled Don’t Always Rely on the Ladder! He says that:

 

“For me, there are only three ways out of this situation.

The first is to recognise that you are in over your head, put down the shovel and holler in the hope that someone might hear you and come to your rescue.

The second is to accept the hand of the person who has realised that you might be in a spot of bother, and has, of their own volition, reached down to pull you out.

And in the absence of the first two, the third is to use the ladder; you know, the one that we all pack away as a last resort, in readiness for a quick escape for when we do end up digging that hole just a little too deep.”

 

Another article by Sun Shine (at Medium) on June 23, 2017 is titled Investing and the five laws of holes. He says:

 

“The First Law of Holes (this is the only stated law of holes) – if you find yourself in a hole, stop digging…

 

The Second Law of Holes – If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging, come out of it, and then fill it in to keep it from becoming a hazard…

 

The Third Law of Holes – If you don’t know that you are in a hole, ask someone who isn’t covered with mud and standing in the shade…

 

The Fourth Law of Holes – If someone else, and especially when that someone appears smart and has been successful in the recent past, seems to be digging a hole, don’t try to jump in to give him company…

 

The Fifth Law of Holes – Trust your logic – ‘I must get out of the hole before I fall deeper’ – more than your ego – ‘How could I have been so blind to have gotten into this hole?’ ”

 

How old is the sentiment behind the First Law of Holes? There is an article by Garson O’Toole at the Linguist list on October 19, 2004 titled Proverb: When you’re in a hole, stop digging – On the dangers of digging (Joel Chandler Harris 1889). Joel Chandler Harris told the Uncle Remus stories about the trickster Br’er Rabbit.

 

My cartoons used modified images from OpenClipArt of a standing man, digging, and a ladder.