Monday, February 13, 2023

Government and media storytelling about a Chinese spy balloon that drifted over the United States

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At the beginning of February there were lots of questionable articles about a Chinese balloon. Wikipedia has a page titled 2023 China balloon incident.

 

 

It just was a balloon, not an airship (or a blimp)

 

The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines an airship as:

 

“a lighter-than-air aircraft having propulsion and steering systems”

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As shown above, via a recolored drawing, an airship has pointed ends, propellors, and fins. But a silly statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China on February 3, 2023 titled Foreign Ministry Spokesperson’s Remarks on the Unintended Entry of a Chinese Unmanned Airship into US Airspace Due to Force Majeure instead claimed:

 

“The airship is from China. It is a civilian airship used for research, mainly meteorological, purposes. Affected by the Westerlies and with limited self-steering capability, the airship deviated far from its planned course. The Chinese side regrets the unintended entry of the airship into US airspace due to force majeure. The Chinese side will continue communicating with the US side and properly handle this unexpected situation caused by force majeure.

 

DOD News from the U. S. Department of Defense has three mostly good articles. One on February 2, 2023 is titled U. S. tracking high-altitude surveillance balloon, a second on February 3, 2023 is titled General says Chinese surveillance balloon now over center of U. S., and a third on February 4, 2023 is titled F-22 safely shoots down Chinese spy balloon off South Carolina coast.

 

 

The maneuverable surveillance balloon flew at an altitude of about 60,000 feet (11.4 miles)

 

The February 3rd DOD News article opened by stating:

 

“As of noon today, the maneuverable Chinese surveillance balloon, which was over Montana yesterday, was at an altitude of about 60,000 feet and floating over the center of the continental United States in an easterly direction, posing no risk to commercial aviation, military assets or people on the ground, said the Pentagon press secretary.” 

 

Calling it maneuverable is rather questionable. Presumably it can change altitude, and thus catch the different direction of those prevailing winds. Surveillance is a fancy word. Spy would be plain English.

 

 

That balloon drifted at about the speed of a bicycle race on flat ground

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An article by Meredith Deliso at ABC News on February 5, 2023 is titled Timeline: Where the Chinese surveillance balloon was spotted before being shot down. She reported that it was over  Reed Point, Montana on February 1 st at 4:20 PM, and reached Myrtle Beach, North Carolina on February 4 th at 2:39 PM. That is a flying distance of 1813 miles or a driving distance of 1960 miles in ~70 hours, for a speed of 26 to 28 miles per hour. An article by Whit Yost at Bicycling on June 24, 2022 titled What is a pro cyclist’s average speed in the Tour de France? reported that  on flat terrain it is 25 to 28 miles per hour. There was plenty of time to cover up anything we wished to hide from cameras on that balloon.

 

 

If it flew over Idaho, then an A-10 Warthog from the Idaho National Guard would have shot it down

 

An article by Kevin Miller at KIDO TALK RADIO on February 4, 2023 titled 6 Reasons why Idaho would shoot down sneaky Chinese spy balloon claimed that:

 

“…a spy balloon would be shot down if it flew over Idaho.”

 

But, according to the article by Meredith Deliso at ABC News on February 5, 2023 it did reenter U.S. airspace over northern Idaho on January 31 st. Kevin’s article included seven images of A-10 aircraft. And a quick glance at the Wikipedia page for that attack airplane would have revealed its service ceiling is just 45,000 feet – 15,000 feet (2.84 miles) below the 60,000 feet the balloon flew at. The effective firing range for its 30 mm automatic cannon only is 4,000 feet, so it would not have been able to engage the balloon. An F-15E Strike Eagle with a higher service ceiling of 60,000 feet could get into 20 mm cannon range. They are in Idaho with the 366th Fighter Wing at Mountain Home Air Force Base.

 

 

An average American could have shot it down with a handgun or rifle

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

U. S. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene had tweeted:

"Literally every regular person I know is talking about how to shoot down the Chinese Spy Balloon. It would be great if an average Joe shot it down because China Joe won't. Regular Americans can do everything better than the government and actually care about our country."

But a bullet from a 9mm handgun only can reach a height of 4,000 feet. One from a .30-06 rifle can reach 10,000 feet. One from a 0.50 cal rifle (the most powerful Barrett used by snipers) can reach just 15,000 feet. An article by Thomas Kika at Newsweek on February 4, 2023 is titled Marjorie Taylor Greene mocked by conservatives for Chinese spy balloon idea. After it was shot down, Ciara O’Rourke at Politifact on February 6, 2023 has a fact-check article titled The US government, not a vigilante, shot down a Chinese balloon.

Kevin Miller’s article also made the impractical suggestion that:

“Idahoans would take their large rifles with scopes to the top of the state’s largest mountains to shoot down the balloon.” 

 Our tallest mountain, Mount Borah, is 12,662 feet high. Add 15,000 feet for a 50-cal rifle bullet, and you could shoot 27,662 feet high or less than half the balloon’s 60,000 foot altitude.  



How many times have U. S. aircraft flown over China? 

 

Quite a lot before there was a thaw in our relations with them. For background, look up the Wikipedia page titled 1972 visit by Richard Nixon to China. An article by William Beecher in the New York Times on July 29, 1971 titled U.S. spy flights over China ended to avoid incident said that: 

 

“Peking has publicly protested nearly 500 incursions of its air space by United States aircraft.

 

 Images of a weather balloon, an airship, the 2019 Tour de France bicycle race, and a 9mm Glock all came from Wikimedia Commons.   

 


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