The U.S. poverty rate has not been ‘Frozen around 15%’ since the Great Society

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sometimes just a little research reveals that a political pundit doesn’t know what he’s talking about. A post by Bob ‘Nugie” Neugebauer at the Gem State Patriot News blog on June 22, 2025 titled Idaho Faces Growth and Ideological Challenges claims:

 

“Our nation’s welfare system represents a catastrophic failure that has entrenched poverty rather than eliminating it. Since Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society programs, poverty rates have remained frozen around 15% instead of continuing their post-World War II decline. This system rewards dependency by incentivizing single-parent households, discouraging marriage, and enabling able-bodied individuals to avoid work.”

 

Did he look that up or just borrow it from somewhere else? I found an article by Rachel Bade at Politico on September 17, 2013 including that headline. It is titled Pro Report, presented by POWERJOBS: Obama orders security revie – Navy cut security to reduce costs – U. S. poverty rate frozen at 15 percent – Uninsured rate declines. It says:

 

“U.S. POVERTY RATE FROZEN AT 15 PERCENT. One-in-seven Americans still lived below the poverty line last year, several years out from the recession. (The poverty line, FYI is just over $23,400 for a family of four). That’s about the same as last year, and the sixth straight year without improvement, according to an AP analysis. Although the unemployment rate sank from 9.6 percent in 2010 to 8.1 percent last year, poverty didn’t, and that’s unusual, analysts say: ‘Typically, the poverty rate tends to move in a similar direction as the unemployment rate, so many analysts had been expecting a modest decline in poverty,’ AP’s Hope Yen writes.”

 

There also is a 2017 book by Jon H. Widener titled The Nexus: Understanding Faith and Modern Culture which says:

 

“In the US, the poverty rate was going down until President Lyndon Johnson began the War on Poverty in the 1960s. Since then the poverty rate has been frozen at 14 to 15 percent and has stayed there despite an outlay of $20 trillion over all those years and despite the continuing outlay of $1 trillion a year. The unabashedly collectivist Obama administration continued these policies during its eight years.”

 

Another article at Debt.org on December 21, 2023 titled Poverty in the United States has a section titled Poverty Levels Over Time which instead states:

 

“In the late 1950s the poverty rate in the U.S. was approximately 22%, with just shy of 40 million Americans living in poverty. The rate declined steadily, reaching a low of 11.1% in 1973 and rising to a high of nearly 15% three times – in 1983, 1993, and 2011 – before hitting an all-time low of 10.5% in 2019. However, the 46.7 million Americans in poverty in 2014 was the most ever recorded.”   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I looked up a detailed report by Robert D. Plotnik et al. of the Institute for Research on Poverty titled The Twentieth Century Record of Inequality and Poverty in the United States (Discussion Paper 1166-98 July 1998). Figure 3 on page 24 is shown above, with data for 1947 to 1996 (I added the times for the Great Society). Since those programs ended in 1968 the poverty rate ranged from 12% to 15% and never was frozen. In 1974 the rate hit a minimum of around 12%, 3% lower than the 15% cited by Mr. Neugebauer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

How about more recently? There is a web page by Abigail Tierney at statista on September 16, 2024 titled Poverty rate in the United States from 1990 to 2023. A replot of her graph is shown above. The only time the rate was ‘frozen’ at around 15% was between 2010 and 2014. It was ‘frozen’ at 12.6% from 2003 to 2005 and at 11.5% from 2020 to 2022. In 2019 (under Trump) the poverty rate had fallen to 10.5%, which is 4.5% lower than the 15% cited by Mr. Neugebauer. Clearly he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.

 

The 1883 Josh Shaw painting of empty pockets was adapted from Wikimedia Commons.  

 

 

Skutnik is speechwriter jargon for someone who gets acknowledged by the President in his State of the Union address

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

An article by David Murray at Pro Rhetoric on May 25, 2023 titled “The Lehrman Landing” – and Other Jargon Speechwriters Should Use Constantly includes the following jargon term:

 

“Skutnik. On January 13, 1982, a low-level government worker named Lenny Skutnik saved a woman from drowning after a plane crashed in the icy Potomac River. President Reagan invited Skutnik to attend the State of the Union Address a couple weeks later, and called him out during the speech as the kind of American hero we need more of, these days. Such call-outs to ordinary citizens became a staple of State of the Union speeches that continues to this day. By the speechwriters who stage them, they are called ‘Skutniks.’ “

 

Wikipedia has both a page about Lenny Skutnik and a List of Lenny Skutniks. There also is an article from the Congressional Budget Office on June 3, 2010 titled Lenny Skutnik, CBO’s Most Famous Employee, Retires.

 

 Congressional Research Service has Report R44770 on January 9, 2019 titled History, Evolution, and Practices of the President’s State of the Union Address: Frequently Asked Questions. It has a section titled When Did the Tradition of Acknowledging Guests Sitting in the House Gallery Begin? that explains:

 

“The chief executive frequently invites citizens who have distinguished themselves in some field of service or endeavor to be personal guests in the gallery. President Ronald Reagan began the tradition in 1982 by acknowledging Lenny Skutnik in his speech. Since then, most State of the Union addresses have included the direct mention of at least one presidential guest who was in attendance. Presidential speechwriters often refer to these guests as ‘Lenny Skutniks.’ Usually, the achievements or programs for which the President publicly salutes these guests also serve to underscore some major element of the message. For example, guests have included civil rights pioneer Rosa Parks, former President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai, NBA star and humanitarian Dikembe Mutombo, former Treasury Secretary and Senator Lloyd Bentsen, baseball great Henry ‘Hank’ Aaron, and numerous military servicemembers and veterans.”

 

A recent article by Sherri Kolade at Ragan PR Daily on February 20, 2024 titled Use this decades-old speechwriting technique to create powerful messages today describes:

 

“Reagan’s speechwriter Aram Bakshian, Jr. said that he ‘wrote Lenny Skutnik into the finale’ of Reagan’s speech to play up the hero aspect, according to the Miller Center.

 

‘I wrote the passage that created the hero in the gallery ploy, which unfortunately has been milked to death since and overdone. I almost regret it.’

 

While Bakshian, Jr. may be sick of the tactic, it’s been used so frequently because it works. These Skutniks often resonate with audiences as their stories tug at heartstrings.

 

Michael Ricci, former director of communications for then-Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and former speechwriter and director of communications for John Boehner and Paul Ryan, told PR Daily that speechwriters can use Skutniks to connect the dots with audiences and their sdesire to relate to a hero in a speech.”

 

The image came from a YouTube video of Ronald Reagan Acknowledging Lenny Skutnik 1982.

 

 

Howdahell is jargon for sprinkling local knowledge into a speech

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A blog post by David Murray at Writing Boots on May 23, 2023 is titled Yo, Writer: Yes, Your Best Prose is Jargon-Free. But Your Negotiations with Non-Writers Should Be Jargon-y. One item of jargon he mentioned is:

 

“Howdahell: A term for a little local knowledge casually sprinkled into a speech, usually near the beginning. A commencement speaker can bring the crowd to its feet simply by making reference to having a beer at the local college watering hole. ‘Howdahell does Condoleeza Rice know about Suds on State?”

 

He also said it at Pro Rhetoric on May 25, 2023 in an article titled “The Lehrman Landing” – and Other Jargon Speechwriters Should Use Constantly. I blogged about two jargon items in that article. One was in a post on June 13, 2025 titled The Four Part Close for a speech is also known as “The Lehrman Landing.” Another was in a post on June 19, 2025 titled Monroe’s Motivated Sequence is a framework for persuasive speeches.

 

Robert Lehrman’s 2010 book, The Political Speechwriter’s Companion: A guide for writers and speakers says on page 147 that howdahell was invented by Eric Schnure. Another article by Elena Veatch at The Campaign Workshop on August 19, 2019 titled Speechwriting: 7 Questions with Eric Schnure has Eric explain:

 

“I like to say that every speech should have a ‘howdahell’ moment. That’s where the audience says to themselves, ‘How the hell did she/he know that about me, my school, my town, my hopes and fears?’ I don’t mean that in a Big Brother kind of way. Instead, it's about creating a moment of community and commonality. When a speaker achieves that - it can be powerful stuff.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We will get to know our audience and find a howdahell by asking some of them questions. On January 8, 2024 I blogged about The 5Ws and 1H (or Kipling Method) for planning public speaking or other communication.

 

My devil cartoon was adapted from one at OpenClipArt.

 

 

Speechwriting, storytelling, and 55-word stories

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Back on January 23, 2012 I blogged about 101-word stories and 50-second elevator speeches. Could we get even briefer and tell a story using just fifty-five words? We sure could! Back In fall 1987 Steve Moss created the Fifty-Five Fiction writing contest. In 1995 (and 1998) he had a book of them titled World’s Shortest Stories: Murder. Love. Horror. Suspense.

 

Three excellent articles discuss how 55-word stories have been used in medical education. One June 2010 article by Colleen T. Fogarty in Family Medicine is titled Fifty-five Word Stories: “Small Jewels” for Personal Reflection and Teaching. She has a table describing ten steps for writing a story. And Colleen says:

 

“Well-written 55-word stories include the key elements of narrative: (1) Setting, (2) Character(s), (3) Conflict (something has to happen!), and (4) Resolution (what’s the outcome of the story?) Writers of 55-word stories must remember that just because they are short doesn’t mean they are easy!”

 

A second article by Julie Fashner in the HCA Healthcare Journal of Medicine for April 2020 (Volume 1 Number 2) on pages 115 to 117 is titled Creative Writing in Residency Training. And a third 2024 article by Nancy E. Krusen in Translational Science in Occupation (Volume 1, Number 2) is titled 55-Word Stories: Insight into Healthcare.

 

You could tell one or more fifty-five-word stories within a five-to-seven-minute speech for a Toastmasters club meeting.

 

 

Is it true just because I read it in a book? No! Here’s an inaccurate paragraph on speech anxiety

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Back on March 2, 2013 I had a post titled I read it in a book, so it must be true. Recently I was looking at the 2020 third edition of J. Dan Rothwell’s book, Practically Speaking. In Chapter 2 on Speech Anxiety there is a section on Pervasiveness of Speech Anxiety: A Common Experience beginning with the following paragraph on page 23 (it also is on page 19 in the 2017 second edition):

 

“Mark Twain once remarked, ‘There are two types of speakers; those who are nervous and those who are liars.’ Overstated perhaps, but fear of public speaking is widespread (Pull, 2012). A survey by Chapman University of 1,500 respondents put the fear factor at 62% (‘The Chapman University Survey,’ 2015). This same study also showed fear of public speaking as greater than fear of heights (61%), drowning (47%), flying (39%), and yes, zombies (18%). The fear of public speaking holds true for both face-to-face and web-based online speeches given to remote audiences (Campbell and Larson, 2012).”

 

On May 12, 2020 I blogged on Did Mark Twain really say there were just nervous speakers or liars? He didn’t – that quote first shows up decades after he died.

 

Professor Rothwell referred to public speaking being widespread - based on a 2012 article by Charles B. Pull in Current Opinion in Psychiatry for 2012 (Volume 25, Number 1 pages 25 to 38) titled Current Status of Knowledge on Public-speaking Anxiety. That article reviewed articles from just August 2008 to August 2011. It omitted one by A.M. Ruscio et al. in Psychological Medicine (November 2007 Volume 38, Number 1, pages 15 to 28) titled Social Fears and Social Phobia in the United States: Results from the National Comorbidity Survey Replication. I blogged about it on August 12, 2015 in a post titled There’s really no mystery about how common stage fright is and pointed out that result was just 21.2%.

 

And the blog post for the 2015 Chapman Survey of American Fears lists the sum for Very Afraid + Afraid. It says public speaking is ranked #26 at 28.4%, heights is ranked #28 at 27.4%, zombies is ranked #82 at 8.5%, but drowning is not even listed. (It is in the 2014 survey at 19.3%).  Professor Rothwell exaggerated by instead listing the sums for Very Afraid + Afraid + Slightly Afraid. 

 

Finally, the 2012 Campbell and Larson article in the Journal of Instructional Pedagogies titled Public speaking anxiety: comparing face-to-face and web-based speeches tells us:

 

“Of the group of 70 students, 65 responded to the question. Almost half of the students (45.7%) were more anxious about giving their speech face-to-face, and a little more than one third (34.3%) were more anxious about the web-based delivery.”

 

On September 6, 2022 I blogged about he we should Beware of surveys with small sample sizes, which have large margins of error. For a sample size n = 70, the margin is 11.7%. The difference between face-to-face and web-based is 11.4% - within the margin and not significant.

 

My cartoon was modified from one at OpenClipArt.

 

 

Monroe’s Motivated Sequence is a framework for persuasive speeches

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On June 13, 2025 I blogged about how The Four Part Close for a speech is also known as “The Lehrman Landing”. In that post I linked to an article by David Murray at Pro Rhetoric on May 25, 2025 titled “The Lehrman Landing” – and Other Jargon Speechwriters Should Use Constantly. He said another jargon item was:

 

“Monroe’s Motivated Sequence is an all-purpose speech structure codified in the 1950s by a Purdue University engineer geek named Alan Monroe. Or, if you want to mesmerize a gullible marketing executive, you could say the structure is inspired by the breathy oratorical style of Marilyn Monroe.”

 

There is a Wikipedia page for it. A paraphrase for its five steps is:

 

Attention

Capture audience interest with a compelling opening.

 

Need

Show there is a problem affecting the audience.

 

Satisfaction

Offer a practical and believable solution.

 

Visualization

Help the audience see benefits for the solution.

 

Action

Directly tell the audience what to do next.    

 

A succinct description is in a University of South Carolina UPSTATE Library Guide web page titled SPCH 201 H: Honors Public Speaking: Monroe’s Motivated Sequence Outline. Also, there is a recent article by Nazli Turken and Steven D. Cohen at ORMS TODAY informs on December 6, 2024 titled The science of effective presentations: Using Monroe’s Motivated Sequence to convey analytical findings.

 

 

An amusing xkcd cartoon about types of bridges

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Randal Munroe’s xkcd cartoon for June 2, 2025 is titled Bridge Types. As shown above, it has sixteen of them, which are discussed over at Explain xkcd. Some make good sense: truss, arch, suspended arch, and suspension. The fifteenth is labeled as fun and it has a loop in the center.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But the idea of a double loop as part of a scenic railway (roller coaster) was used almost twelve decades ago in a Puck cartoon titled Pity the Poor Brooklynite, as is shown above. It came from page 5 of the October 24, 1906 issue of that magazine!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is another Puck cartoon (shown above) from page 3 of March 7, 1906 with a bridge alternative titled The Brooklyn Strapid Transit System.