Hans Rosling (1948 to 2017) was a Swedish physician. He gave
a TED talk in 2014 with his son Ola on How not to be ignorant about the world. There
is another 2007 TED talk titled The best stats you’ve ever seen | Hans Rosling.
There also is a wonderful 2018 book by Hans Rosling, with
Ola Rosling, and Anna Rosling Roennlund titled Factfulness: Ten reasons we’re
wrong about the world – and why things are better than you think. It has a Wikipedia page too. They discuss
ten instincts which can distort our perspective. In March 27, 2025 I blogged about one chapter in a post titled There may be no warning before as disaster.
There are eleven
chapters in the book, ten of which end with as summary as follows:
“Chapter 1 [page 46]: To control the gap instinct, look
for the majority.
Beware comparisons of averages. If you could check
the spreads you would probably find they overlap. There is probably no gap at
all.
Beware comparisons of extremes. In all groups, of
countries or people, there are some at the top and some at the bottom. The
difference is sometimes extremely unfair. But even then the majority is usually
somewhere in between, right where the gap is supposed to be.
The view from up here. Remember, looking down from
above distorts the view. Everything else looks equally short, but it’s not.
Chapter 2 [page 74]: To control the negativity instinct, expect
bad news.
Better and bad. Practice distinguishing between a
level (e.g., bad) and a direction of change (e.g. better). Convince yourself
that things can be both better and bad.
Good news is not news. Good news is almost never
reported. So news is almost always bad. When you see bad news, ask whether
equally positive news would have reached you.
Gradual improvement is not news. When a trend is
gradually improving, with periodic dips, you are more likely to notice the dips
than the overall improvement.
More news does not equal more suffering. More bad
news is sometimes due to better surveillance of suffering, not a worsening
world.
Beware rosy pasts. People often glorify their early
experiences, and nations often glorify their histories,
Chapter 3 [page 100]: To control the straight line instinct,
remember that curves come in different shapes. [See the image shown above].
Don’t assume straight lines. Many trends do not
follow straight lines, but are S-bends, slides, humps, or doubling lines. No
child ever kept up the rate of growth it achieved in its first six months, and
no parents would expect it to.
Chapter 4 [page 123]: To control the fear instinct, calculate
the risks.
The scary world: fear vs. reality. The world seems
scarier than it is because what you hear about it has been selected – by your
own attention filters or by the media – precisely because it is scary.
Risk = danger x exposure. The risk something poses to
you depends not on how scared it makes you feel, but on a combination of two
things. How dangerous is it? And how much are you exposed to it.
Get calm before you carry on. When you are afraid,
you see the world differently. Make as few decisions as possible until the
panic has subsided.
Chapter 5 [page 143]: To control the size instinct, get
things in proportion.
Compare. Big numbers always look big. Single numbers
on their own are misleading and should make you suspicious. Always look for
comparisons. Ideally, divide by something.
80/20. Have you been given a long list> Look for
the few largest items and deal with those first. They are quite likely more
important than all the others put together.
Divide. Amounts and rates can tell very different
stories. Rates are more meaningful, especially when comparing between
different-sized groups. In particular, look for rates per person when comparing
between countries or regions.
Chapter 6 [page 165]: To control the generalization
instinct, question your categories.
Look for differences within groups. Especially
when the groups are large, look for ways to split them into smaller, more precise
categories. And…
Look for similarities across groups. If you
find striking similarities between different groups, consider whether your
categories are relevant. But also…
Look for differences across groups. Do not
assume that what applies for one group (e.g. you and other people living on
Level 4 or unconscious soldiers) applies to another (e.g. people not living on
Level 4 or sleeping babies.
Beware of ‘the majority.’ The majority just means
more than half. Ask whether it means 51 percent, 99 percent, or something in
between
Beware of vivid examples. Vivid images are easier to
recall but they might be the exception rather than the rule.
Assume people are not idiots. When something looks
strange, be curious and humble, and think. In what way is this a smart
solution?
Chapter 7 [page 184]: To control the destiny instinct, remember
slow change is still change.
Keep track of gradual improvements. A small change every
year can translate to a huge change over decades.
Update your knowledge. Some knowledge goes out of
date quickly. Technology, countries, societies, cultures, and religions are
constantly changing.
Talk to Grandpa. If you want to be reminded of how
values have changed, think about your grandparents’ values and how they differ
from yours.
Collect examples of cultural change. Challenge the
idea that today’s culture must also have been yesterday’s, and will also be
tomorrow’s.
Chapter 8 [page 202]: To control the single perspective
instinct, get a toolbox, not a hammer.
Test your ideas. Don’t only collect examples that
show how excellent your favorite ideas are. Have people who disagree with you
test your ideas and find their weaknesses.
Limited expertise. Don’t claim expertise beyond your field:
be humble about what you don’t know. Be aware too of the limits of the
expertise of others.
Hammers and nails. If you are good with a tool, you may want
to use it too often. If you have analyzed a problem in depth, you can end up
exaggerating the importance of that problem or of your solution. Remember that
no one tool is good for everything. If your favorite idea is a hammer, look for
colleagues with screwdrivers, wrenches, and tape measures. Be open to ideas
from other fields.
Numbers, but not only numbers. The world
cannot be understood without numbers, and it cannot be understood with numbers
alone. Love numbers for what they tell you about real lives.
Beware of simple ideas and simple solutions. History
is full of visionaries who used simple utopian visions to justify terrible actions.
Welcome complexity. Combine ideas. Compromise. Solve problems on a case-by-case
basis.
Chapter 9 [page 222]: To control the blame instinct, resist
finding a scapegoat.
Look for causes, not villains. When something goes
wrong don’t look for an individual or a group to blame. Accept that bad things
can happen without anyone intending them to. Instead spend your energy on
understanding the multiple interacting causes, or system, that created the
situation.
Look for systems, not heroes. When someone claims to
have caused something good, ask whether the outcome might have happened anyway,
even if that individual had done nothing. Give the system some credit.
Chapter 10 [page 242]: To control the urgency instinct, take
small steps.
Take a breath. When your urgency instinct is
triggered, your other instincts kick in and your analysis shuts down. Ask for
more time and more information. It’s rarely now or never and it’s rarely either/or.
Insist on the data. If something is urgent and
important, it should be measured. Beware of data that is relevant but
inaccurate, or accurate but irrelevant. Only relevant and accurate data is
useful.
Beware of fortune-tellers. Any prediction about the
future is uncertain. Be wary of predictions that fail to acknowledge that.
Insist on a full range of scenarios, never just the best or worst case. Ask how
often such predictions have been right before.
Be wary of drastic action. Ask what side effects will
be. Ask how the idea has been tested. Step-by-step practical improvements, and
evaluations of their impact, are less dramatic, but usually more effective.”
The image of a chart on children came from Wikimedia
Commons.