Contrails are real, chemtrails are nonsense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Back on June 27, 2020 I blogged about Contrails or chemtrails? I said that chemtrails were a conspiracy theory and nonsense.

 

There is an article by Benjamin Radford on July 25, 2025 at the Skeptical Inquirer titled EPA Debunks Chemtrails. And there is a second article by Mick West in the January/February 2024 issue titled What Happened to Chemtrails?

 

A news release from the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on July 10, 2025 is titled EPA Releases New Online Resource Giving Total Transparency on the Issues of Geoengineering and Chemtrails. There is a 4-page pdf on July 18, 2025 titled Contrails Fact Sheet. And there is a web page updated July 22, 2025 titled Information on Contrails from Aircraft. It has sections with the following titles:

 

What are contrails?

How do contrails form?

How long do contrails last?

Research on the environmental impacts of contrails

What are ‘chemtrails’?

What is intentionally sprayed from airplanes?

Are contrails related to geoengineering or weather modification?

What is HAARP and is it related to contrails, geoengineering or weather modification?

 

Yet there is an article from Kate Plummer at Newsweek on June 3, 2025 titled Map Shows States Trying to Ban ‘Chemtrails’. Nine are Florida, Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Texas.

 

Earlier on March 19, 2021 Lana Del Ray released an album titled Chemtrails Over the Country Club that has a Wikipedia page. Her title song, which has a YouTube video, says:

 

“Me and my sister just playing it cool
Under the chemtrails over the country club.”

 

Finally, there is an article by Ron Smith at the Royal Aeronautical Society on April 14, 2023 titled ‘Chemtrails’ debunked that has sections titled:

 

Contrails or ‘chemtrails’?

Iridescent contrails

How to see and photograph iridescent contrails

 

An image of contrails was cropped from one at Wikimedia Commons.

 

 

If there was a no-fly zone at the South Pole, then you would have to drive there

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The web page for the conspiracy-friendly Coast to Coast AM show on May 22, 2024 titled Antarctica Mysteries / Ancient Aliens & Harmonics claims that Brad Olsen:

 

“….recounted his trip to Antarctica around five years ago and what he observed there. There is a no-fly zone over the South Pole, and he suggested this could be a cover-up for a giant hole in the ice, which Admiral Byrd allegedly reported as an aviator on his first flyover of the area.”

 

His claimed no-fly zone is nonsense (as is that giant hole in the ice). The transportation section of the Wikipedia page for the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station instead states that:

 

“The station has a runway for aircraft 12,000 feet (3,658 m) long. Between October and February, there are several flights per day of U. S. Air Force ski-equipped LC-130 Hercules aircraft from the New York Air National Guard, 109 AW, 139 AS Stratton Air National Guard via McMurdo Station to supply the station.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

My brother-in-law and his co-workers operated a radio telescope there, and my sister once flew there. Back on June 7, 2011 I blogged about How many hats do you wear? And I included the above image of a souvenir hat from the station.

 

An image of snowmobilers was modified from this one at Yellowstone from Wikimedia Commons.

 

Baseless conspiracy theories about the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On March 26, 2024, at 01:27 EDT, the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore collapsed after one of its support pillars was struck by the container ship M.V. Dali. Eight construction workers were filling potholes on the bridge. Two were rescued, and the other six died.There is an AP article by Ben Finley and James Pollard on March 30, 2024 titled What we know about the Baltimore bridge collapse.

Almost immediately there were claims it was a terrorist act. On the Coast-to-Coast-AM radio show, John M. Curtis (who writes as Online Columnist) claimed ISIS-K was responsible. An article by Tess Owen at The Guardian on March 27, 2024 is titled Online conspiracy circles galvanize to proclaim Baltimore bridge collapse a ‘black swan event.’ But when you look up the Wikipedia page on Black swan theory, you will find that a Black Swan event:

 

“First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside of the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme ‘impact.’ Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.”

 

The Key Bridge collapse was NOT the first event of its type, so it is certainly NOT a Black Swan. Back on May 9, 1980 the Sunshine Skyway Bridge over Lower Tampa Bay collapsed after being hit by a ship. 35 people died. On April 17, 2023 I blogged about A great video course on Epic Engineering Failures and the Lessons They Teach. In the course that Tampa event is discussed under #6, Vehicle Collisions.   

 

There are other articles lamenting all of these online conspiracies. One by Mary Whitfill Roeloffs at Forbes on March 27, 2024 is titled Baltimore bridge collapse sparks wild conspiracies – even though officials continue to dispel them. A second by David Gilbert at Wired on March 27, 2024 is titled Online conspiracies about the Baltimore bridge collapse are out of control. And a third by A.W. Ohlheiser at Vox on March 28, 2024 is titled The slow death of Twitter is measured in disasters like the Baltimore bridge collapse. There also is a ten-minute YouTube video by Donie O’Sullivan at CNN titled ‘Ridiculous’: Reporter reacts to conspiracy theories about Baltimore bridge collapse.

 

A later article by Ramon Padilla, Trevor Hughes, and Shawn J. Sullivan at USA Today on March 29, 2024 is titled How Francis Scott Key Bridge was lost: A minute-by-minute visual analysis of the collapse. It looks more like a complicated accident.

 

Before and after Images of the bridge are from Wikimedia Commons.

 

A quarter of U. S. adults are loons who agree with conspiracy theories

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is good and bad news about beliefs in conspiracy theories by U.S. adults. It is from a survey at the back of Dr. Michael Shermer’s 2022 book CONSPIRACY Why the Rational Believe the Irrational. That book is a long, serious look at conspiracies published by the Johns Hopkins University Press. There is a 32-minute YouTube discussion of it from Skeptic.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First the bad news. A quarter of us (24.7%) agree with them, as is shown above in a bar chart listing 29 theories. (Click on it to see a larger, clearer view). More than a quarter agree with 15 theories. There are two theories made-up just for this survey: 5G Dakota Crash (11.92%) and COVID Vaccine Magnetic Reactions (14.55%). One in seven of us could agree with a made-up theory we never ever heard of before! 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second, the good news. Half (49.7%) of us disagree with them, as is shown above in a second bar chart. A majority (more than half) disagree with 15 of 29 theories.

 

A CODA at the end of the book is titled What People Believe About Conspiracy Theories and Why. It describes a survey done in spring and summer 2021 by Qualtrics on a random sample of 3,139 Americans. They were asked about 29 conspiracy theories, and asked to reply on a seven-point Likert scale ranging from: strongly disagree, moderately disagree, slightly disagree, uncertain, slightly agree, moderately agree, strongly agree. Results reported in the book on pages 279 to 299 were summarized via bar charts grouped in three categories of Agree, Disagree, or Uncertain.  Here are the detailed questions corresponding to the labels in my bar charts:

 

GOVERNMENT/POLITICAL CONSPIRACY THEORIES

 

QAnon

The government, media and financial worlds in the United States are controlled by a group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles who run a global sex trafficking operation.

 

Deep State

The actions of the US government are not determined by elected officials, but by an unelected secret group of business and cultural elites known

 

Rigged Election 2016

The 2016 presidential election of Donald Trump was fraudulent, because it was tampered with by high-ranking politicians and computer programmers in Russia.

 

Rigged Election 2020

The 2020 presidential election of Joe Biden was fraudulent, because it was tampered with by high-ranking politicians, voting machine programmers, and poll workers.

 

Obama Birtherism

The government has suppressed evidence that Barack Obama was not born on US soil and was thus an illegitimate president.

 

9/11 Inside Job

The Bush administration has hidden the truth about their role in bringing down the Twin Towers on 9/11.

 

FEMA Concentration Camps

FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) is secretly building concentration camps in the United States that will be used as holding cells for citizens and political prisoners.

 

Moon Landing Faked

NASA and the American government are hiding the truth that the moon landing in 1969 was faked.

 

Global Warning Hoax

Global warming is a hoax developed by liberal elites and careerist scientists who are hoping to appeal to political popularity.

 

Woke Race

The way the founders of the United States set things up ensures that, even today, only whites can be truly free and successful.

 

Woke Gender

The way the founders of the United States set things up ensures that, even today, only men can be truly free and successful.

 

Reptilian Aliens

Reptilian aliens occupy positions of significant power and influence in the US government, as well as in the media.

 

UFOs

The US government is hiding the truth about alien visitations to Earth.

 

MEDICAL/VACCINE/COVID-19 CONSPIRACY THEORIES

 

COVID Chinese Lab

COVID-19 was developed in a Chinese lab, and Chinese officials have covered it up.

 

COVID Vaccine Surveillance Chips

The COVID-19 vaccine contains tiny computer chips, to help make government surveillance of people easier.

 

COVID Vaccine Magnetic Reactions (made-up conspiracy theory)

Political and medical elites are hiding the truth about how COVID-19 vaccines cause magnetic reactions.

 

Vaccines Cause Autism

Political and medical elites are hiding the truth about the harmful role of vaccines in causing autism in children.

 

Chemtrails

The US government and major corporations have been involved in releasing toxic poisons through the chemtrails generated by commercial airliners.

 

GMOs

Governments around the world are hiding the truth about the role of genetically-modified organisms (GMOs) in rising rates of cancer and autism.

 

5G COVID

5G cell-phone towers reduce our immune functioning and increase our risk of COVID-19 infection.

 

5G Dakota Crash (made-up conspiracy theory)

High-ranking officials in the US Air Force are hiding important information regarding the role of 5G technologies in the Dakota crash.

 

SUSPICIOUS DEATHS CONSPIRACY THEORIES

 

JFK Assassination

Individuals within the US government have hidden the truth about who was really responsible for the assassination of John F. Kennedy.

 

Princess Diana Murder

Powerful people are hiding evidence that Princess Diana was murdered.

 

Epstein Murder

High-ranking officials, powerful politicians, and noted celebrities are hiding information about the murder of Jeffrey Epstein, to cover up illegal or immoral sexual activity.

 

Sandy Hook False Flag

The Sandy Hook school shooting was staged as a false-flag operation, so progressive liberals could further promote gun control laws or even overturn the Second Amendment.

 

Clinton Murders

Though it goes unreported, the Clinton family is known to be directly responsible for numerous murders of important political figures.

 

SECRET ORGINAZATION CONSPIRACY THEORIES

 

Secret Societies

Global and national politics are controlled by the world’s richest individuals and secret societies, such as the Illuminati, the Rothschild family, the Rockefeller family, and the British royals, who advocate a New World Order.

 

Israel/Jews

Israel/Jews secretly control most of the decision-making processes across key US institutions, including government and media.

 

Smart Phone Spying

Political and business elites are regularly using iPhones and other popular consumer electronics to spy on us without our consent.

 

On October 15, 2016 I blogged about What is the government concealing from us? Paranoia in the 2016 Chapman Survey of American Fears. And on November 22, 2017 I blogged about What is our government sweeping under the rug? Paranoia in the 2017 Chapman Survey of American Fears.

 

The image of four loons came from Wikimedia Commons.

 

 

Is there an image showing a demonic portal hovering over the White House?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not really. It’s just another very silly conspiracy theory publicized last year.  

 

On April 28, 2022 there is an article by Kyle Mantyla at RIGHT WING WATCH titled Roger Stone claims there is a ‘Satanic Portal’ over the White House. It was humorously discussed that day by Evan Hurst, the managing editor of Wonkette, in another article titled Oh no Roger Stone found the satanic portal above the White House. Evan referenced a possible inspiration – the TV show Buffy the Vampire Slayer. But at Metabunk.org Mick West had a third article that day titled Explained: Roger Stone’s ”Portal” over the White House – Lens Flare and Spotlights. Lens flare is an imaging artifact. It happens inside your camera rather than out in the real world.  

 

The portal has been discussed more recently by Stone, and then reported on by magazine and newspaper journalists. For example, an article by Jason Lemon at Newsweek on May 14, 2022 is titled Trump allies warn of ‘Demonic Territory,’ ‘Satanic Portal’ over Biden WH. And at The Guardian on June 14, 2022 Peter Stone has an article titled Roger Stone and Michael Flynn under fire for rallies ‘distorting Christianity’ with this:

 

“Stone revved up the crowd with at times bizarre conspiratorial claims. ‘There is a satanic portal above the White House, you can see day and night. It exists. It is real. And it must be closed. It will be closed by prayer,’ he said.

 

The ‘portal’ Stone told a rapt crowd, first appeared after Joe Biden ‘became president and it will be closed before he leaves’. Stone, a longtime Trump confidant, was convicted on three counts including obstruction during the Russia meddling investigations, but he was pardoned in late 2020 by Trump, who had earlier commuted his sentence.”

 

It also was discussed at Salon on December 13, 2022 in an article by Meaghan Ellis titled Roger Stone claims he personally saw a literal “demonic portal” over Biden White House. Others have made claims about portals without having seen them. Another article by Sudliksha Koshi at USA Today on July 26, 2022 is titled Fact check: Scientists at CERN are not opening a ‘portal to hell.’ And if you believe what you see in films, like Portal to the Abyss, then you might even find a demonic portal in your bathroom.

 

My image of a portal was created in PowerPoint by adding recolored image of a galaxy (via Photoshop Elements) to an image of the White House (both from Wikimedia Commons).

 

According to USDirect, chemtrails were the most searched for conspiracy theory in Idaho (and four other states) last year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USDirect is an authorized retailer for DIRECTV. On February 9, 2017 I blogged about More lame marketing from DIRECTV (my getting a phony holiday greeting card). On April 9, 2021 the USDirect web site has an article (or blog post) titled Every State’s Most-Searched Conspiracy Theory. Of course, the web site for the conspiracy-friendly late-night Coast to Coast AM radio show has an article  by Tim Burnall about it on April 21, 2021 titled Study determines most-searched conspiracy theory for each state. Eventually on April 16, 2021 Michael Deeds even wrote about it in the Idaho Statesman.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As is shown above via a bar chart, the New World Order was most commonly searched for – in 27 states. Chemtrails, Flat Earth, and New Coke all were the most searched conspiracy in five states each. Black Helicopters were most searched in another four states, and Lizard People were in two states. One state each had the Deepwater Horizon, the Moon Landing Was Fake, and that Tupac Is Alive.

 

Most searched for just means most looked at, and does not mean most believed. On March 7, 2015 I blogged about Is that Top Ten list from a real survey or just a glorified stack of web searches? And on June 27, 2020 I blogged about Contrails or chemtrails?

 

Ohio is an excellent example. Neil Armstrong, the first person to walk on the moon, was born and grew up there. Most Ohioans likely think Neil really was on the moon. At Space.com on July 19, 2019 there is an article by Elizabeth Howell titled Moon-landing hoax still lives on, 50 years after Apollo 11. But why?

    

My icon of a man in a tinfoil hat was adapted from an image by SkepticalScience at Wikimedia Commons.   

 

Contrails or chemtrails?

When I look in the sky I sometimes see contrails – white lines behind airplanes. A web page by the Center for Science Education at the University Center for Atmospheric Research succinctly explains:

“The white streaks you see coming off high-flying jet airplanes are called contrails, which is short for condensation trail. Contrails are clouds that form when water vapor condenses and freezes around small particles (aerosols) in aircraft exhaust. The water vapor comes from the air around the plane and the exhaust of the aircraft. These contrails can become human-made cirrus clouds. Contrails last longer when there is a greater amount of water in the air; when all of the water in the clouds evaporates the contrail disappears. There are three types of contrails: short-lived, persistent non-spreading, and persistent spreading.”

Here in Boise at jet aircraft altitudes the humidity usually is low, and most contrails are short-lived. At the Metabunk web site there is an article by Mick West from October 6, 2016 discussing Why were there contrails today, but not yesterday? It’s the weather!

What are chemtrails? A Wikipedia article titled Chemtrail Conspiracy Theory begins:

“The chemtrail conspiracy theory posits the erroneous belief that long-lasting condensation trails are ‘chemtrails’ consisting of chemicals or biological agents left in the sky by high-flying aircraft, sprayed for nefarious purposes undisclosed to the general public. Believers in this conspiracy theory say that while normal contrails dissipate relatively quickly, contrails that linger must contain additional substances. Those who subscribe to the theory speculate that the purpose of the chemical release may be solar radiation management, weather modification, psychological manipulation, human population control, or biological or chemical warfare, and that the trails are causing respiratory illnesses and other health problems.”

The conspiracy is called a Secret Large-scale Atmospheric Program (SLAP). There is a serious  article by Christine Shearer, Mick West, Ken Caldeira and Steven J. Davis in IOP Science Environmental Research Letters on August 10, 2016 titled Quantifying expert consensus against the existence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying program. Experts on both contrails (49) and atmospheric deposition (28) replied to surveys. Just one deposition expert had ever seen evidence of SLAP – the other 76 said no. There is a less technical brief article about this one by Sabrina Stierwalt in Scientific American on September 22, 2018 titled What are chemtrails made of?

A web page on Chemtrails at Rational Wiki shows a doctored image of a control panel from an alleged chemtrail plane. Another article by Dan Evon at Snopes on June 7, 2017 titled Did President Trump tour a chemtrail plane? said no, that plane just had water ballast tanks for test flights – and the original article was at a satirical web site.

Images of contrails from twin engine and four engine jet planes both came from Wikimedia Commons.

A colossal conspiracy called the Mandela Effect

Some people have very curious beliefs. The so-called Mandela Effect is a belief originated by Fiona Broome. She remembered that Nelson Mandela died in prison back in the 1980s rather than in 2013 (after having become much more famous because he was elected President of South Africa in 1994 and served for five years).

Wikipedia hasn’t bothered with a separate page for the Mandela Effect. It instead appears as the last heading in the page on Confabulation that says:

“An internet meme related to confabulation is known as the Mandela effect. This is a situation where a number of people have memories that are different from the available evidence. The term was coined by paranormal enthusiast Fiona Broome, who says she and other people remember Nelson Mandela dying in the 1980’s rather than in 2013. She argues that common memories which appear mistaken could be explained by the existence of parallel universes that are able to interact with each other. A common thread of discussion regarding this ‘effect‘ is misremembering the Berenstain Bears being spelled as ‘Berenstein Bears‘. “  

The first few moments of a YouTube video by Dr. Druanna Johnson titled What is happening to our current reality! Mandela Effect?? gives some other examples, like at 1:05 that department store J. C. Penney was originally spelled Penny, and at 1:20 that Oscar Mayer originally was spelled Myer. Did either name really change? No!

I looked in the EBSCO databases on my friendly local public library web site, and instead found a .pdf file of an article in the April 1930 Harvard Business Review by  David R. Falk titled Central Buying by Department-Store Mergers which referred to the J.C. Penney Co.

When I searched in Wikimedia Commons, I found both a 1936 photo of an Oscar Mayer  Wienermobile, and a 1948 ad from the Ladies Home Journal for Oscar Mayer Wieners.

On July 24, 2016 Snopes had an article by David Emery on The Mandela Effect that said The Glitch Is in Your Memory, Not the Matrix. There also is a web site about Debunking Mandela Effects, and an article at the Rational Wiki.   

I know that my memory isn’t always reliable. Ask any prosecutor or forensic engineer what they think of eyewitness testimony, and watch them chuckle. For example, here in Boise there is a personal injury law firm that often runs TV ads (which I typically don’t pay close attention to and mute). If you’d asked me I’d have told you their name was Lister Frost, but it actually is Litser Frost.  

An image of a mandala found at Wikimedia Commons was colored in.