Not everyone fears public speaking

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There occasionally is a silly claim that everyone fears public speaking. It assumes that everyone has the same fear as you do. That shows up on page 195 of a 2020 book by Ahmed Adamu titled You Are a Leader:

 

“Everyone has a fear of public speaking: think of good public speakers, they all have fear of public speaking, but they still make good public speeches.”

 

It is in an article by Dana Wilson at TroyMEDIA on May 24, 2022 titled Overcoming the fear of public speaking:

 

“Everyone has a fear of public speaking. No matter how famous, we all have been uncomfortable speaking at times.”

 

It also can be found in another September 19, 2022 article at Tony Yuile Coaching titled Public speaking anxiety:

 

“It’s said that everyone has a fear of public speaking (aka stage fright).”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But when you look at detailed results from surveys, like the Chapman Survey on American Fears, you will find that less than 70% fear speaking. Two bar charts shown above are from my June 1, 2025 blog post titled An article on stage fright by David Pennington claimed public speaking was the #1 fear in a Chapman Survey, but ignored their nine other surveys where it was ranked from #26 to #59.

 

 

Kidney beans just are the seeds from green beans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We can be surprised by something that we didn’t ever think about. I grew up in a city (Pittsburgh) and never considered if green beans and kidney beans were related. On the new books shelf at the Cole and Ustick branch of the Boise Public Library I found a 2024 book by Wendy Hutton titled Asian Vegetables: A Cook’s Bible. It contains the following description for green beans and kidney beans:

 

Green Beans [page 17]:

 

“Green Beans are probably the most widely eaten fresh beans in the world. Also known as haricot beans, French beans or in the U.S. as string beans, they are native to Mexico and Guatemala. Green beans are now eaten throughout Asia, although in some countries they are less popular than long beans. If left to mature, the almost negligible seeds inside the young green pods will swell to form legumes. When these are dried, they turn red and are known as kidney beans (see page 20).”

 

Kidney Beans [page 20]

 

“Kidney Beans are the mature seeds of the common green bean (see page 17). In India, where several types of kidney beans are grown, they are known as rajmah. Usually available dry, the beans are dark red in color when fully matured. Fresh kidney beans are sold already shelled in India and Indonesia.”

 

I have made Three Bean Salad from canned green beans, wax beans, and kidney beans.

 

Images of green beans and kidney beans (rajma) came from Wikimedia Commons.

 

 

A bogus car story from the 2025 book Speak, Memorably

 

 

 

 

 

There are lots of recent books about public speaking.  Currently I am reading one from 2025 by Bill McGowan and Juliana Silva titled Speak, Memorably: the art of captivating an audience. It is not awful, but it is not great either. At the bottom of page 87 and top of page 88, in a section mistitled The Cadillac of Analogies, they tell the following bogus story about the Cadillac Cimmaron (shown above) and the similar Chevrolet Cavalier (also shown):

 

“In 1982 Cadillac wanted to capture the middle-class car buyer who aspired to own a Cadillac. The model they built was called the Cadillac Cimmaron. On paper it sounded like a good idea, but it turned into a debacle that damaged one of Detroit’s most iconic luxury brands. What they should have done was build a new car from scratch. But they thought they could take a shortcut and merely add some quasi-luxury touches to the down-market Chevy Nova and pass it off as a Cadillac. It was a colossal failure. The consumer, whom they clearly underestimated, saw right through it. The historic blunder, however, did lead to something spectacular. Acknowledging the value of creating something genuinely new, GM created not just a new model, but a whole new category: luxury SUVs. The Cadillac Escalade was the phoenix that rose out of the ashes of the Cimmaron. It was a mega success, undoing the damage done by the Cimmaron and then some.”

 

Their story was superficially researched and wrong in two different ways.They referred to the Chevy version as the Nova. But Chevy built a Nova from 1962 to 1979 and then revived that name from 1985 to 1988 for a NUMMI version of a Toyota Corolla.

 

The real reason that the Cimmaron failed is that there was a series of five very similar looking J-Cars, one from each GM division: the Chevrolet Cavalier, Pontiac J2000, Oldsmobile Firenza, second generation Buick Skyhawk, and Cadillac Cimmaron.

 

Second, GM and the Cadillac Escalade (first produced in August 1998) did not create the luxury SUV category – it was preceded by Ford’s Lincoln Navigator (first produced in May 1997).

 

I know about the J-Cars because in 1985 I looked at the Chevy, Pontiac, and Buick versions. Instead I bought a 1984 Toyota Corolla from Avis used car sales, and drove it till I got a 1993 Saturn SL2 sedan.   

 

Images of a 1983 Cimmaron and a 1984 Cavalier were adapted from Wikimedia Commons.  

  

Two useful library jargon phrases: Reader’s Advisory and Reference Interview

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sometimes it helps to know insider jargon in order to find useful information, like for asking a librarian about a possible speech topic.

 

I found an accessible free downladable book by Reed Hepler and David Horalek titled Introduction to Library and Information Science. Both are at the College of Southern Idaho in Twin Falls. That book also can be downloaded here.

 Chapter 16 on Reader’s Advisory (pages 136 to 139) begins by describing how: 

“Reader's Advisory is a service that helps readers find appropriate recommendations based on their interests, reading level, and other factors. Each library has a unique method of managing Reader’s Advisory requests. Some systems incorporate Lexile ratings, which indicate the difficulty of understanding a particular book. These ratings are typically associated with age levels for a particular work. However, age should not be a determining factor when conducting Reader’s Advisory.”

There also is a long, excellent Wikipedia article on Reader’s Advisory. And Chapter 9 on Reference Librarianship (pages 84 to 91) describes a Reference Interview as follows on page 86: 

“The five parts of a reference interview are:

Initial question: User asks the question to reference librarian/technician.

Clarification of question: Librarian starts a dialog in an effort to clarify the real needs of the user and to try to obtain more information.

Translating the question into potential library sources: Librarian takes the lead by suggesting potential sources and determining what has already been consulted, and then they devise a search strategy.

The search: The reference librarian or technician leads the user through the search of appropriate sources. At the same time, they implement point-of-use instruction with each resource consulted so that the user gains some knowledge for future independent searching.

Follow-up: As the search progresses, the librarian should ask the patron, ‘Is this what you are looking for?’ to be sure that the search is on the right track. When leaving the patron, the librarian should always add, ‘Let me know if you need more help.’ This lets the user know that they can come back for more help.”

There is another Wikipedia article on the Reference Interview. And there is a 7-page pdf article at the National Archive at Boston titled Guidelines of the Successful Reference Interview from American Library Association.

 

Also, the American Library Association has a store web page describing the third edition of a book from 2019 (with 344-pages) titled Conducting the Reference Interview.

 

On February 23, 2020 I blogged about Finding speech topics and doing research. In that post I suggested that:

 

“…the best way to learn is to make an appointment with a reference librarian at your public library. Tell him or her your topic, and you can learn where to look, and get suggestions for better search terms.”

 

An image of a librarian came from Wikimedia Commons.

 

Do you suffer from the heartbreak of library anxiety?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recently I found some articles about university students being anxious when using a library. There is a Wikipedia page on that subject. Such anxiety obviously could interfere with speechwriting and other research.

 

I never had that problem. Perhaps it was because as a child of five I already had been introduced to the children’s room at the main Carnegie Library in Pittsburgh. I blogged about it in a post on April 7, 2021 titled This is National Library Week and today is National Bookmobile Day.

 

There is an article by Constance A. Mellon at College & Research Libraries for 1986 (Volume 47, Number 2 pages 160 to 165) titled Library Anxiety: A Grounded Theory and Its Development. When she asked six thousand U. S. students, between 75% and 85% described their initial response to the library in terms of fear or anxiety. A more recent article by Gabriel X. D. Tan et al. in the Journal of Affective Disorders Reports for 2023 titled Prevalence of anxiety in college and university students: An umbrella review found a range from 7.4% to 55% with a median of 32%.

 

Some university libraries have web pages about overcoming anxiety. For example, Jennifer Lau-Bond at Harper College has one titled Library Anxiety Overview. And Erica Nicol at Washington State University has a second titled Library Anxiety – How to Beat It. And St. Catherine University – Library and Archives has a third titled Don’t Panic! Using the Library for Academic Success: Home.

 

Another recent article by Anthony Aycock in Information Today on May 7, 2024 is titled Mental Health Awareness Month: What is Library Anxiety?

 

The cartoon of a stern librarian was adapted from one at OpenClipArt.

 

 

Did Benjamin Franklin say you will find the key to success under your alarm clock? No, he did not!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Quotes often are attributed to Ben Franklin, Abraham Lincoln, Mark Twain, or Ralph Waldo Emerson. An article by Garson O’Toole at Quote Investigator on February 17, 2025 titled Quote Origin: You Will Find the Key to Success Under Your Alarm Clock? analyzed whether Benjamin Franklin said that. Franklin lived from 1706 to 1790. But the alarm clock was invented over fifty years after he died - patented over in France in 1847.

 

O’Toole found the earliest reference for that saying appeared more than a century ago in November 1922 at The Nebraska Ironmonger from Lincoln, Nebraska. And that is 132 years after Ben Franklin died! The earliest reference attributed to Franklin is from 1946 by Ezra L. Marler in a compilation titled Golden Nuggets of Thought. In 1952 it appeared in a horoscope column published in several newspapers.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There even is a fake Benjamin Franklin quotation meme generator. An example from it is shown above.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And there also is another generator for real quotes with images, one of which is shown above.

 

Images of an alarm clock and key were adapted from those found at OpenClipArt.

 

 

A flawed White House document regarding President Trump’s accomplishments in his first hundred days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The first hundred days of a presidency often is used as a benchmark for what to expect. There is a White House document titled President Trump’s 100 Days of Historic Accomplishments. It has a mixture of arrogance and ignorance we would expect. This document contains a list of his executive orders compared with predecessors (as shown above in a bar chart). But that list is missing results for both his immediate predecessor Joe Biden (42) and his first term (24). Worse yet the claim of only 30 executive orders is obviously wrong:  the Wikipedia page titled List of executive orders in the second presidency of Donald Trump shows 26 signed on the very first day, 36 in the first week and 130 total.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another bar chart (shown above) from the March 27, 2025 Ballotpedia article titled President Donald Trump issues most executive orders in the first 100 days since 1933 says Trump instead had 103, versus 33 in his first term.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Trump’s document also has a list of number of laws enacted (shown above in a third bar chart). Again, it is missing both his immediate predecessor Joe Biden (with 11) and his first term (again with 28), but it also left off Franklin Roosevelt with 77, who was included in the list of executive orders.

 

Postdoc Research Slams – three-minute presentation contests

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On May 24, 2024 I blogged about how PhD students can give Three Minute Thesis speeches. That’s half the average of six minutes (five to seven range) for a typical Toastmasters speech.

 

There is an article by Joe Gettler at the Brookhaven National Laboratory Newsroom on February 18, 2025 titled 10 Scientists Compete in Research Slam at Brookhaven Laboratory. Their 2024 Research SLAM was held on December 5, 2024, and both early-career scientists and postdocs competed.

 

There also is a news article by Blessing (E. B.) Odunyi at the University of Calgary on February 28, 2025 titled Three minutes, endless impact: UCalgary’s Postdoc Research Slam celebrates innovation and storytelling. Each three-minute speech used a single slide. It was the seventh year for this competition. There is a YouTube video from February 26, 2025 with highlights from the 2025 event.

 

The clock face was modified from this image at OpenClipArt.

 

A paraphrase is not a quotation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There is an inadequately researched article by Lee-Ann Ragan at Rock Paper Scissors on February 18, 2025 titled The Science of Great Speaking: How to Engage, Persuade, and Inspire. She begins:

 

“Yes, it's true.

There IS research suggesting that people fear public speaking more than death. In a 1973 study by R. H. Bruskin Associates, which surveyed Americans about their fears, public speaking ranked as the number one fear, even above death.

 

This led to the famous quote by comedian Jerry Seinfeld:

 

‘Most people would rather be in the casket than giving the eulogy.’

 

Glossophobia (fear of public speaking) is extremely common, affecting up to 77% of people.”

 

First, what she claims Seinfeld said isn’t a real quote – it’s just a paraphrase. An article by Leigh McCullough and Kristin A. R. Osborn in the Journal of Clinical Psychology for 2004 (Volume 60, Number 8. Pages 841 to 852) titled Short Term Dynamic Psychotherapy Goes to Hollywood: The Treatment of Performance Anxiety in Cinema first got it wrong:

 

“Jerry Seinfeld once joked that at a funeral, ‘most people would rather be in the casket than giving the eulogy.’ “

 

At The Sunday Times on September 28, 2014, in an article titled Conquer the fear that dare not publicly speak its name, Paul Cleary got it right:

 

“To paraphrase Jerry Seinfeld, at a funeral most people would rather be in the casket than giving the eulogy.”

 

I most recently blogged about the actual quote on January 21, 2024 in a post titled Ten quotes to motivate speaking in public – five of which are incorrect. What Jerry really said in his TV show, on May 20, 1993 was:

 

“According to most studies, people’s number-one fear is public speaking. Number two is death. ‘Death’ is number two! Now this means to the average person, if you have to go to a funeral, you’re better off in the casket than doing the eulogy.”

 

Second, the 77% for fear is wildly overstated. On January 14, 2025 I blogged about how A claim that 77% of the world fears public speaking is just nonsense. I also blogged about it on October 12, 2020 in a post titled Do 77% of Americans fear public speaking? No! That percentage described stage fright in Swedes who also had social anxiety disorder. Only 24% of Swedes had a fear of speaking or performing.  

 

Third, the 1973 Bruskin study described (not just suggested) what more people fear, rather than what people fear more. Way back on October 27, 2009 I blogged about The 14 Worst Human Fears in the 1977 Book of Lists: where did this data really come from? Speaking before a group was feared by 40.6%, while death was feared by 18.7%. And on May 19, 2011 I blogged about another survey two decades later in a post titled America’s Number One Fear: Public Speaking – that 1993 Bruskin-Goldring Survey. That time speaking before a group was feared by 45%, while death was feared by 31%.

 

How about survey results from last year? On October 24, 2024 I blogged about how In the tenth Chapman Survey of American Fears for 2024, public speaking was only ranked #59 of 85 fears at 29.0%. And Dying was #51 at 31.6%, but People I Love Dying was #4 at 57.8%.  

 

The cartoon was adapted from one at Openclipart.

 

The Scout Mindset is an interesting book by Julia Galef which discusses why some people see things clearly and others do not

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Recently I have been reading an interesting book from 2021 by Julia Galef titled The Scout Mindset: Why some people see things clearly and others don’t. There is a Google Books preview of it and a Wikipedia page.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A table (shown above) from page 14 describes how there is a large difference between a soldier mindset and a scout mindset.

 

Chapter 4 in the book is titled Signs of a Scout. It has the following headings:

 

Feeling Objective Doesn’t Make You a Scout

 

Being Smart and Knowledgeable Doesn’t Make You a Scout

 

Feeling Objective Doesn’t Make You a Scout

 

Actually Practicing Scout Mindset Makes You a Scout:

  Do you tell other people when you realize they were right?

  How do you react to personal criticism?

  Do you ever prove yourself wrong?

  Do you take precautions to avoid fooling yourself?

  Do you have any good critics?

 

In 2016 Julia gave two twelve-minute TEDx talks about this subject. One in February is titled Why you think you’re right - even if you’re wrong. The other in April is titled Why “scout mindset” is crucial to good judgment. There also is an hour and a half seminar at the Long Now Foundation on October 18, 2019 titled Soldiers and Scouts: Why our minds weren’t built for truth.

 

There is an article by Benjamin J. Lovett in Psychological Injury and Law magazine for 2022, Volume 15, pages 287 to 294 titled Objectivity or Advocacy? The ethics of the scout mindset in psychoeducational assessment.

 

The image of a woman with binoculars is from Wikimedia Commons.

 

Seeing data using exploratory data analysis and histograms

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

When I get bored, I play solitare – the online version from TheSolitaire.com. Recently I got curious about how much time and how many moves it was taking me to complete a game. What would the averages be? Would their shape just follow a Normal Distribution - the symmetrical bell curve shown above. It has roughly two thirds of the data (68.3%) in a range plus or minus one standard deviation from the mean.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Or would there instead be a skew distribution, as shown above? I did some exploratory data analysis. I kept track of a hundred games, and then used Microsoft Excel to plot histograms.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A histogram for time to complete is shown above. The mean time to complete was 208 seconds (3 minutes and 28 seconds) and the standard deviation was 27.6 seconds.  Columns in this histogram are twenty seconds wide. There are roughly two and a half to the left of the mean, but four and a half to the right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another histogram, for the number of moves to complete, is shown above. The mean number of moves was 134 and the standard deviation was 12 moves. Columns in this histogram are ten moves wide. There are three to the left of the mean, but four to the right.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Both histograms have a positive skew. They are shaped like the slide on a children’s playground, as shown above via a cartoon.

 

How old is the phrase ‘conspiracy theory’?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It’s a century older than you might think.

 

Between 11 PM and 3 AM I sometimes listen to the Coast-to-Coast AM radio show for entertainment rather than information. It’s a conversation piece for victims of insomnia. The January 17, 2025 show was titled Decoding Dreams/Conspiracy Culture. The webpage says:

 

“In the second half, David Samuels, the editor of County Highway, explored the rise of conspiracy theories in contemporary society and their detrimental effect on public trust. He pointed to the rumors swirling around during the COVID-19 pandemic as a prime example, remarking, ‘COVID did more to destroy public trust in institutions than any other single event of my lifetime.’

 

Samuels highlighted the stark decline in society’s trust in the media, mentioning that it had plummeted from over 50% to a mere 22%. He also insisted on having a critical mindset in today’s information-saturated world, stating, ‘You got to kind of question everything in this day and age.’

 

The conversation touched on the origin of the term ‘conspiracy theory.’ Samuels explained that its roots are found in the Warren Commission report following President Kennedy’s assassination. According to him, ‘This country is founded on a conspiracy theory,’ noting that the American revolution was sparked by the perceived tyranny of King George III.”  

 

Did ‘conspiracy theory’ really first come out in the 1964 Warren Commission report? I thought it might be much older, and looked up that phrase both in the EBSCOhost databases at my public library, and at Google Books.

 

At EBSCOhost I found an article by Howard J. Graham in the Yale Law Journal for 1938 (Volume 47, pages 371 to 403) titled The “Conspiracy Theory” of the Fourteenth Amendment.

 

At Google Books I found an 1881 book by James D. McCabe titled Our Martyred President: The Life and Public Services of Gen. James A. Garfield. On page 556 it specifically says that:

 

“There is more and more doubt of the conspiracy theory.”

 

What about another obvious source, which you would expect the show to have consulted?  The Wikipedia page on Conspiracy theory has a section on Origin and usage which points to a January 11, 1863 letter in The New York Times. And it also explains:

 

“Whether the CIA was responsible for popularising the term ‘conspiracy theory’ was analyzed by Michael Butter, a Professor of American Literary and Cultural History at the University of Tubingen. Butter wrote in 2020 that the CIA document Concerning Criticism of the Warren Report, which proponents of the theory use as evidence of CIA motive and intention, does not contain the phrase ‘conspiracy theory’ in the singular, and only uses the term ‘conspiracy theories’ once, in the sentence: ‘Conspiracy theories have frequently thrown suspicion on our organisation (sic) for example, by falsely alleging that Lee Harvey Oswald worked for us.’ “

 

The surprised cartoon came from Openclipart.

 

A claim that 77% of the world fears public speaking is just nonsense

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At AhaSlides on January 3, 2025 there is an article by Lawrence Haywood titled Fear of Public Speaking: 15 Tips to Beat Glossophobia in 2025. It begins:

 

“What is glossophobia?

 

Glossophobia – the fear of public speaking – is a kind of social anxiety disorder that prevents an individual from speaking in front of a group of people.

 

We can say with some conviction that you are a sufferer of the fear of public speaking.

 

How? Well, yes, because you’re reading this article, but also because all of the stats point to it. According to one European study, an estimated 77% of people could suffer from a fear of public speaking.

 

That’s over 3/4 of the world who are just like you when they’re in front of a crowd. They shake, blush and quiver on stage. Their hearts go a mile a minute and their voice cracks under the pressure of being the sole person tasked to get a message across.”  

 

Using a percentage from one European country to represent the world obviously is complete nonsense. And that article did very superficial research. It just linked to the abstract of an article by Alexandre Heeren et al. rather than the full text you can find or at PubMed Central. The first sentence of that article instead says that rather than their research in Belgium or Switzerland:

 

“About 77% of the general population fears public speaking. [Reference 1, to a 1999 article by T. Furmark et al. about Sweden]

 

Back on September 15, 2023 I blogged about how That zombie statistic that 77% of people fear public speaking in back – again. That post referred to an earlier, very similar article from AhaSlides. And it also referred to my blog post on October 12, 2020 titled Do 77% of Americans fear public speaking? No! That percentage described stage fright in Swedes who also had social anxiety disorder. Only 24% of the Swedish general population feared public speaking – about three times less.

 

That 24% is very similar to the percentages found for the U.S. in the ten Chapman Surveys of American Fears. I have presented those results (for the Very Afraid + Afraid fear levels) most recently in a December 5, 2024 blog post titled Psychotherapist Jonathan Berent fumbles some statistics about social anxiety and fear of public speaking. They were 25.3% for 2014, 27.5% for 2015, 25.5% for 2016, 23.3% for 2017, 26.2% for 2018, 31.2% for 2019, 29.0% for 2020/21, 24.0% for 2022, 28.7% for 2023, and 29.1% for 2024.

 

Another misleading article about government spending from the Idaho Freedom Foundation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At the Idaho Freedom Foundation on December 31, 2024 there is a misleading article by Fred Birnbaum titled Want limited government? Control the spending! He preaches that:

 

“Legislative leadership needs to set both state and federal (all funds) spending limits so that overall spending does not grow at all in the coming year, meaning a 0% increase in all funds appropriations from Fiscal Year 2025 to Fiscal Year 2026. Is this reasonable? Absolutely!”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fred has a pair of tables showing how state spending grew from fiscal 2020 to 2025, and how federal spending changed from fiscal 2019 to 2024. He shows a totally unnecessary seven or eight significant figures. Graphs would have been more effective for showing changes. Fred claims that there have been large increases:

 

“What we see is that state spending, excluding federal dollars, has increased 53% over five years at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.8%. Now let’s look at the federal dollars (all federal spending, not just federal dollars for Idaho) for the last five years – note that a one-year offset is used because of differences in fiscal years and the fact that COVID spending first washed through the federal government before hitting the states.

What we see is that federal spending is up 56%, and the CAGR is 9.3%. This means that Idaho is growing spending virtually as fast as the profligate federal government. Who would have thought this?”

 

Fred summarized those tables with a five-year % increase and a CAGR. But what was going on from year to year?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The graph shown above made using Excel displays the state spending data. Year to year % increases in spending were 4.75%, 4.64%, 18.6%, 11.5%, and 5.35%. The first two were around 5%, but the next two were much larger. The five-year % increase was 53% and the CAGR was 8.8%.

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Another graph shows the federal data he tabulated in red. Year to year % changes in spending were 47.4%, 4.1%, -8.0%, -2.2% and 13.1%. The five-year % increase was 56% and the CAGR was 9.3%. With a huge range of -2.2% to 47.4% the CAGR tells us very little. But Fred did not link to a source for that federal data, so I went looking for one. I found a United States Treasury Department FiscalData web page titled How much has the U.S. government spent this year? which has a graphic titled Government Spending and the U. S. Economy (GDP, FY 2015 -2024 Inflation Adjusted – 2024 dollars. I also have plotted that federal data in blue. It does NOT agree with what Fred tabulated. The five-year % increase only was 23.6% and the CAGR just was 3.9%. But the maximum change, from 2019 to 2020, was by 45.4%. Using the five-year % increase gives a much more modest change of 23.6%, where Idaho spending increased over twice as much as federal spending did!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That Treasury web page has more spending data, back to 2015. All those results are shown above in yet another graph. We can look at 2020, 2021, and 2022 as being a COVID-19 hump. Then we can draw a line with a 5% growth rate through 2018, 2019, 2023 and 2024. A 5% growth rate would compensate for inflation and be much more reasonable than Fred’s zero.   

 

The cartoon with money bags was adapted from this one at Openclipart.