Monday, March 16, 2020

Be afraid, be very afraid. But do it anyway, do it anyway.



















That is the joyous chorus from the new single, Be Afraid, from Jason Isbell and the 400 Unit. It has a similar sentiment to the empowering title of a 1987 book by the late Susan Jeffers, Feel the Fear … and Do It Anyway.

The first verse of that song begins:

“We’ve been testing you, and you failed

 To see how long that you could sit with the truth, but you bailed”

The third verse begins:

“We don’t take requests, we won’t shut up and sing

 Tell the truth enough, you’ll find it rhymes with everything”

An image of a tightrope walker at Taft Point in Yosemite National Park came from Wikimedia Commons.

Wednesday, March 11, 2020

How not to communicate during a real crisis like the coronavirus












Randall Munroe’s xkcd web comic for March 9, 2020 about a scientific briefing (shown above) neatly sums up the Trump administration attitude toward the coronavirus.   

Back on February 26, President Trump held a 54-minute press conference on the coronavirus. On March 2, 2020 at the Washington Post there was an article titled Inside Trump’s frantic attempts to minimize the coronavirus crisis.

On March 10, 2020 the conservative National Review finally had an editorial article titled President Trump needs to step up on the coronavirus. In the sixth paragraph they stated the obvious:

“….The failures of leadership at the top, however, show no sign of being corrected.  In a serious public-health crisis, the public has a right to expect the government’s chief executive to lead in a number of crucial ways: by prioritizing the problem properly, by deferring to subject matter experts when appropriate while making key decisions in informed and sensible ways, by providing honest and careful information to the country, by calming fears and setting expectations, and by addressing mistakes and setbacks.



Trump so far hasn’t passed muster on any of these metrics. He resisted making the response to the epidemic a priority for as long as he could – refusing briefings, downplaying the problem, and wasting precious time. He has failed to properly empower his subordinates and refused to trust the information they provided him – often offering up unsubstantiated claims and figures from cable television instead. He has spoken about the crisis in crude political and personal terms. He has stood in the way of public understanding of the plausible course of the epidemic, trafficking instead in dismissive clichés. He has denied his administration’s missteps, making it more difficult to address them.  



This presidential behavior is all too familiar. It is how he has gotten through scandals and fiascos for more than three years in office. But those were all essentially political in nature, and most were self-created. The country has been lucky in the Trump era, largely avoiding the sorts of major, unforeseen crises that make the greatest demands of the modern presidency. That luck has now run out, and this demands a new level of seriousness from the president and those around him.



President Trump needs to rise to this challenge. His partisan adversaries are sure he can’t. We hope he proves them wrong.”
























If the Trump administration had bothered to ask the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) whether they had any advice about crisis communication, then they would have been pointed to lots of very useful information. CDC has a web page about Crisis and Emergency Communication (CERC) with a link to a 462-page manual (from 2014) and a succinct Pocket Card, (see page 174 in the manual) the front of which is shown above. Back on May 30, 2014 I blogged about Remembering what is important in crisis communication – the CDC CERC pocket or emergency card.

On December 31, 2019 there was an article by Daniel Dale at CNN Politics titled A month-by-month look at Donald Trump’s top lies of 2019. He counted over 2,700 false claims, or about 7.4 per day. Based on that record of not being right, I doubt that the president can become credible. Rather than listen to the president, I will look at the coronavirus page at the CDC web site for advice - including their Steps to Prevent Illness.


UPDATE March 13, 2020

On the evening of Wednesday March 11, 2020 President Trump spoke from the White House. An article on  March 12, 2020 at the Washington Post titled Ten minutes at the teleprompter: Inside Trump’s failed attempt to calm coronavirus fears described what happened:

“In the most scripted of presidential settings, a prime-time televised address to the nation, President Trump decided to ad-lib – and his errors triggered a market meltdown, panicked travelers overseas and crystallized for his critics just how dangerously he has fumbled his management of the coronavirus.

Even Trump – a man practically allergic to admitting mistakes – knew he’d screwed up by declaring Wednesday night that his ban on travel from Europe would include cargo and trade, and acknowledged as much to aides in the Oval Office as soon as he’d finished speaking, according to one senior administration official and a second person, both with knowledge of the episode.

Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and senior adviser who has seized control of some aspects of the government’s coronavirus response, reassured Trump that aides would correct his misstatement, four administration officials said, and they scrambled to do just that. The president also told staffers to make sure other countries did not believe trade would be affected, and even sent a cleanup tweet of his own: ‘The restriction stops people not goods,’ he wrote.

Other administration officials rushed to alert the public that U.S. citizens would be exempt from the travel ban, after scores of Americans, upon digesting Trump’s speech, phoned government offices and raced to airports in Europe out of concern that they would not be able to fly home.

Trump’s 10-minute Oval Office address Wednesday night reflected not only his handling of the coronavirus crisis but, in some ways, much of his presidency. It was riddled with errors, nationalist and xenophobic in tone, limited in its empathy, and boastful of both his own decisions and the supremacy of the nation he leads.

Futures for the Dow Jones industrial average fell in real time with virtually each word Trump uttered, signaling a lack of confidence among investors that he had control of the crisis and previewing another bloodbath once the markets opened Thursday morning.

Trump – who believed that by giving the speech he would appear in command and that his remarks would reassure financial markets and the country – was in ‘an unusually foul mood’ and sounded at times ‘apoplectic’ on Thursday as he watched stocks tumble and digested widespread criticism of his speech, according to a former senior administration official briefed on his private conversations.

This official, like many others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to share sensitive information or make candid assessments.

Ben Rhodes, who served as a senior White House aide and helped former president Barack Obama script and manage his responses to numerous crises, predicted that Wednesday night’s address will stand as ‘the moment people associate with the fact that Donald Trump failed the biggest test of his presidency.’

‘I think we’ll look back on this as a defining moment of the Trump presidency because it speaks to larger concerns that people already had about Trump – that he can’t tell the truth, that he doesn’t value expertise, that he doesn’t take the presidency seriously enough,’ Rhodes said.”    



Monday, March 9, 2020

Blades on your ceiling fan should not fly off like a pair of dull machetes




















Because I used to do failure analysis I occasionally look at the product recalls web page for the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). On February 13, 2020 there was one titled Fanim Industries recalls Harbor Breeze Santa Anna ceiling fan due to injury hazard: sold exclusively at Lowes stores. They said blade holders on the fan can break and either of the two blades can fly off. 70,000 fans are being recalled because there were 210 reports of blades ejecting or breaking and 10 reports of blades hitting customers.

The installation guide shows that each blade holder arm (red) is attached to the motor flywheel via two screws. Initial assembly instructions warn you to make sure the bottom edge of the blade holder arm is fully seated against the flywheel surface of the motor. Then final assembly instructions say each blade (yellow) is attached to a blade holder via three washer-head screws.

Those screws normally should not loosen. On May 6, 2018 I blogged about how Driverless cars don’t need steering wheels – but the rest of us sure do. That recall was because a locking feature had been improperly applied. An article from 2015 by Michael Kaas at Fastening + Fixing Magazine titled Stop loosening of fasteners shows several options. A more detailed discussion is found in NASA STD 5020 Requirements for threaded fastening systems in spaceflight hardware. See Appendix B, best practices for locking features.

Sunday, March 8, 2020

Want to look silly in the first paragraph of your marketing article?






















The first paragraph of an article on March 5, 2020 from Penna Powers at the KSL web site titled Utah CEO explains single trait that can lead to career goal success by their CEO Mike Brian stated that:

“…Research from Chapman University found 26% of Americans have a fear of public speaking. In several research projects conducted over decades, the number one fear for most people is public speaking.”
























But when you check his reference to the 2018 Chapman Survey of American Fears, you will find that fear of public speaking ranked #59 rather than #1. As shown above in a graph from my January 27, 2020 blog post titled Why do we often hear about the 2014 Chapman Survey of American Fears, but not about the other four done in 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018? it also ranked far below #1 in the previous three years. Oops! Item #76 on the list was Being fooled by 'fake' news!

Similarly, the first sentence of an article by Pearl Kim on March 3, 2020 at GovLoop titled 5 best resources to enhance your public speaking was:

"According to the 2018 Chapman Survey of American Fears, public speaking ranked higher than reptiles, large volcanic eruptions, and technology that people don't understand." 

Friday, March 6, 2020

Another generic comment




















I enjoy receiving feedback, and occasionally get useful comments on my blog posts. But I detest getting totally generic comments like the following one (and do not put them up):

“Hello! Thanks for sharing a knowledgeable post. I have read it very carefully. I just found this post very effective to make the concept strengthen. I wanted to request you please visit my website. I also post the knowledgeable information.”  

Thursday, March 5, 2020

A strong ending is very persuasive



























On February 26, 2020 there was a hilarious F Minus cartoon by Tony Carrillo captioned:

“Jen, that presentation made almost no sense at all, but it finished so strong I’ve decided to push ahead with your plan.”

The most recently presented information may be remembered best, as Kendra Cherry discussed at Verywellmind in an article on April 23, 2019 titled What is the Recency Effect?

A cartoon of a flirty woman with money was adapted from this one at Wikimedia Commons.

Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Spouting Nonsense: a bogus statistic in an article saying to Communicate Like Your Life Depends On It
















At Medium on December 10, 2019 there is a long article by Greg Cheek titled Communicate Like Your Life Depends On It. That title set a very high standard which he did not live up to. In his thirteenth section titled Stage Fright, Communication Apprehension, and Plain Nervousness Greg claimed:

“In a recent Gallup poll, Americans were asked to list their greatest fears. Forty percent identified speaking before a group as a top fear, exceeded only by fifty-one percent who said they were afraid of snakes. In comparison, only twenty-eight percent said they were afraid of dying. In most polls, speechmaking and speaking in front of a group of people is tops in provoking anxiety (stage fright).”


















On March 24, 2018 I had blogged about how to be careful and Don’t trust superficial research. In that post I discussed another silly claim that the 2001 Gallup poll had asked about greatest fears – which it really had not. The Gallup poll was discussed in a well-known March 19, 2001 article by Geoffrey Brewer titled Snakes Top List of Americans’ Fears. It just asked about fears for 13 situations, and as shown above in a bar chart, dying never was mentioned. 2001 also was nineteen years ago, which is not exactly recent. So, where had that bogus 28% for dying come from? Not from Gallup, who last researched about fear of dying in a Mirror of America survey in November 1990 - and found 23%. 


















On March 3, 2020 I blogged about how An obscure UK survey from 2005 found public speaking was the most common fear. The 28% for dying came from a YouGov survey as shown in a second bar chart. It was four years later than the Gallup poll, and done in Great Britain rather than the U.S. Obviously Mr. Cheek never bothered to check the Gallup article.

How had he gotten so confused? Greg apparently read secondhand or thirdhand information about a section from the first chapter in the tenth edition (2009) of Stephen E. Lucas’s book The Art of Public Speaking.  On page 9, he states that:

“If you are worrying about stage fright, you may feel better knowing that you are not alone. A 2001 Gallup Poll asked Americans to list their greatest fears. Forty percent identified speaking before a group as their top fear, exceeded only by the 51 percent who said they were afraid of snakes. A 2005 survey produced similar results, with 42 percent of respondents being terrified by the prospect of speaking in public. In comparison, only 28 percent said they were afraid of dying. (Reference #6).”

Reference #6 on page N-1 is to two different articles:

“Geoffrey Brewer, ‘Snakes Top List of Americans’ Fears,’ Gallup News Service, February 2001; Alex Blyth, ‘How to Get the Most Out of Public Speaking Training,’ Training Magazine (June 14, 2006), p.7”

For careless and superficial research resulting in his spouting nonsense, I award Greg Cheek a Spoutly.