Hot Air, Theories, and the Mystery of Malaysia Airlines Flight 370

Shortly after midnight on March 8, 2014 Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 took off from Kuala Lumpur with a crew of 12 and 227 passengers. They headed toward Beijing, then turned to the west and just disappeared. Eventually it became clear that it had headed into the southern Indian Ocean and was presumed to have crashed.

There still is no physical evidence. What we know came only from radio transmissions and sonar pings. When will this mystery be solved? Perhaps in two to five years, based on what occurred after the crash of Air France Flight 447.

Much of what I have seen on television and read merely is hot air - theories that have no basis, and should be called fairy tales. These stories tell you nothing about the crash, but a lot about the prejudices of those who tell them. They made me think of a movie line spoken the  Major T. J. Kong, the B-52 pilot in Dr. Strangelove:

“Well I've been to one World's Fair, a picnic, and a rodeo, and that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard...”

Back on March 20th on MSNBC Chris Hayes had a six-minute segment which lamented that The plane is not in a black hole.  

The opening segment (titled American Idle Speculation) on the March 24th The Daily Show with Jon Stewart skewered the overblown TV coverage by US cable news networks CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.

Branding or Blanding?

I read that Japanese speakers learning English have trouble distinguishing between “r” and “l”. Branding gets pronounced as blanding, which seems appropriate considering how some brands behave. 

Earlier this year I was surprised to read that office supply firms Office Depot and OfficeMax had merged last November. Both were pretty bland rather than compelling brands. As shown above, I thought of them like Tweedledum and Tweedledee.

All I could remember about them was both names started with office. But, which had a single word mashup name (on one line), and which had two words (on two lines with the second all in caps)? When I couldn’t remember which one I’d bought an item from, I just would head over to the Franklin Towne Plaza where both had stores.

After the merger Office Depot finally began running 30-second commercials Where Did You Get That? featuring interesting products they sell. 

Some people take their branding more seriously, like Fred E. Miller, whose name I always associate with his “No Sweat” brand.  

Tweedledum and Tweedledee come from an old illustration from Alice in Wonderland.

Celebrating another milestone - 900 Blog Posts

When I started this blog back in late May of 2008, I didn’t expect to keep going for over 900 posts. It’s been almost six years though. Here are the top ten most commonly viewed posts for the last month.(Curiously there are four from 2009, three from 2011, one from 2012, and two from 2014).

At #1, from October 27, 2009: The 14 Worst Human Fears in the 1977 Book of Lists: where did this data really come from?

At #2, from July 5, 2009: Two types of speech outlines: speaking and preparation.

At #3, from December 11, 2009: Does homeopathic Argentum nitricum reduce anxiety?

At #4, from September 18, 2009: Herbal remedies for anxiety.

At #5, from May 14, 2012: Who invented the flip chart?

At #6, from December 29, 2011: How can you easily draw dotted chalk lines on a blackboard?

At #7, from January 11, 2011: Timing lights for speakers.

At #8, from March 30, 2014: Sorry, but Zero Gravity Day is just an old April Fool’s Day joke.

At #9, from September 8, 2011: Motivational speech and Explosions in the Sky.

At #10, from April 2, 2014: YouGov survey of U.S. adults found they most commonly were very afraid of snakes, heights, public speaking, spiders, and being closed in a small space.

Spouting Nonsense: A sandy Spoutly for Division E and L of Toastmasters District 79

A few days ago I ran across a web page from March 15, 2014 on Fear of public speaking (Glossophobia) for the annual conference (to be held April 18, 2014) from Division E and L of Toastmasters District 79 (Saudi Arabia).

I was appalled to find it included a red and pink bar chart (minus the top caption) from my July 3, 2011 blog post directly above text claiming that:

“The Book Of Lists has the fear of public speaking at number 1 of all human fears.”

The original bar chart is shown above. That post was titled More Americans fear public speaking than getting fat, and death tied for third. It was about a 1996 Roper survey reported in American Demographics in 1997 and had absolutely nothing to do with the 1977 Book of Lists. They didn’t bother to ask me before misusing my chart. 

Toastmasters International has a Club Leadership Handbook that contains A Toastmasters Promise, the last line of which says:

“To maintain honest and highly ethical standards during the conduct of all Toastmasters activities.”

Pinnochio was a bad motivational speaker

GEICO has an amusing 30-second television commercial about why Pinnochio was a bad motivational speaker.

The classic bad motivational speaker was Matt Foley, portrayed by Chris Farley in a six-minute sketch on Saturday Night Live.

A close second is a brief sketch with a failed trust fall by the infamous Todd Conner. 

An image of Pinnochio was adapted from this one on Wikimedia Commons.

Comparing U.S. and British 2014 YouGov fear surveys

Last month something very unusual happened. YouGov plc conducted fear surveys of adults in both Britain and the U.S. using the exact same set of questions. Those people were asked about the following 13 different fearful situations:

1. Being in a closed space
2. Blood
3. Clowns
4. Crowds
5. Darkness
6. Dogs
7. Flying in an airplane
8. Heights
9. Mice
10. Needles and getting shots
11. Public speaking
12. Snakes
13. Spiders

They were asked if they were:

A) Not afraid at all
B) Not really afraid
C) A little afraid
D) Very afraid

We can compare the results to see how similar or different they are. Before we do this, we need to look at the margins of error, or confidence intervals, which depend on the sample sizes. For the survey in Britain the sample size is 2088, so the margin of error for 95% confidence is plus or minus 2.1%. For the U.S. survey  the sample size is 991 people and the margin of error is  3.1.%. (95% confidence means there is only a 1 in 20 chance that the survey result would vary by this much). If the difference between the results is greater than the sum, 5.2%, it can be considered significant statistically.  

Results for Very Afraid are shown above in a bar chart. (Click on it to see a larger, clearer version).The top five fears for the U.S. [and their difference from the British results] are:

1. Snakes (32%) [11]
2. Heights (24%) [1]
3. Public speaking (20%) [0]
4. Spiders (19%) [1]
5. Being closed in a small space (15%) [1]

Significantly more U.S. adults are very afraid of snakes [11] and flying [7] than their British counterparts.

Results for A Little Afraid are shown above in a second bar chart. Now the top five fears are:

1. Public speaking (36%) [0]
2. Heights (33%) [-2]
3. Snakes (32%) [1]
4. Spiders (29%) [5]
5. Being closed in a small space (27%) [-2]

Significantly more U.S. Adults are a little afraid of flying [7] and darkness [8] than their British counterparts.

We also can add the percentages for A Little Afraid to those for Very Afraid to produce impressively large percentages for Total Afraid, as shown above in a third bar chart. The top five fears are:

1. Snakes (64%) [12]
2. Heights (57%) [-1]
3. Public speaking (56%) [0]
4. Spiders (48%) [6]
5. Being closed in a small space (42%) [-1]

Significantly more U.S. adults are afraid of snakes [12]. spiders [6], flying [14] and darkness [9] than their British counterparts.

Very curiously, the same percentages in both countries were afraid of public speaking:

Very Afraid: 20%
A Little Afraid: 36%
Total Afraid: 56%

The cartoon was adapted from one in Puck back in 1901.

Top 20 Tips for Successful Public Speaking from David Meerman Scott

On his Web Ink Now blog David Meerman Scott posted on April 2nd about More top ten tips for incredibly successful public speaking. His previous post in 2009 also had ten, so in summary his top 20 are:

1. Take it seriously.
2. Know the conference organizer’s goals.
3. Tell stories.
4. Nobody cares about your products (except you).
5. Prepare and practice.
6. Don’t use PowerPoint as a TelePrompTer.
7. Arrive early.
8. Bring an electronic copy of your presentation.
9. Don’t go long.
10. Be aware of body language.
11. Learn from the best.
12. Find out about the audience.
13. Test the technology!
14. Prepare for things to go wrong.
15. Help the MC to find an interesting way to introduce you.
16. Have fun!
17. Work the entire stage.
18. Include real-time elements.
19. Get photos of the event from the organizers.
20. Ask for honest feedback.

David is well-known for his 2007 book, The New Rules of Marketing and PR, which now is in its 4th edition. Both of  his posts are excellent and well work reading for the details. His items #13 and #14 are related. Even when you check out the equipment the day before you may still be surprised, and be heading for a worst moment.

For example, back in 2008 I spoke in one half of the split ballroom at the Sun Valley Inn. The previous day everything had worked fine - because the other half was not being used. When I got up to speak, the sound from the speaker now using the other half took over. They had forgotten to split the sound system when they split the room with a movable wall. So, ask the A/V person what’s going on next door too.

YouGov survey of U.S. adults found they most commonly were very afraid of snakes, heights, public speaking, spiders, and being closed in a small space

If you were thinking about referring to a fears survey published in the 1977 Book of Lists that really came from a Bruskin survey way back in 1973, please stop. Why not update to one from 2014?

On March 27, 2014 YouGov plc posted an article by Peter Moore mistitled Argh! Snakes! America’s Top Phobias Revealed with the results of their fears survey just done in the U.S. on a sample of about 1000 adults. Those people were asked about the following 13 different fearful situations:

Being in a closed space
Blood
Clowns
Crowds
Darkness
Dogs
Flying in an airplane
Heights
Mice
Needles and getting shots
Public speaking
Snakes
Spiders

They were asked if they were:

A) Not afraid at all
B) Not really afraid
C) A little afraid
D) Very afraid

Back in October 2011 I blogged about the clinical definition for What’s the difference between a fear and a phobia? A phobia calls for more than being very afraid, so these really just are fears.

Results for Very Afraid are shown above in a bar chart. (Click on it to see a larger, clearer view). The top five fears are:

1. Snakes (32%)
2. Heights (24%)
3. Public speaking (20%)
4. Spiders (19%)
5. Being closed in a small space (15%)

The most common fear, snakes, was consistent with the 2001 and 1998 Gallup Polls. Note that public speaking came in third, contradicting the often seen claim that it always ranks first. To see if a difference is significant, we need to compare it with the margin of error, which for Snakes (991 people) and 95% confidence is 3.1.%. (95% confidence means there is only a 1 in 20 chance that the difference would be this large).

Results for A Little Afraid are shown above in a second bar chart. Now the top five fears are:

1. Public speaking (36%)
2. Heights (33%)
3. Snakes (32%)
4. Spiders (29%)
5. Being closed in a small space (27%)

We also can add the percentages for A Little Afraid to those for Very Afraid to produce impressively large percentages for Total Afraid, as shown above in a third bar chart. The top five fears are:

1. Snakes (64%)
2. Heights (57%)
3. Public speaking (56%)
4. Spiders (48%)
5. Being closed in a small space (42%)

Note that for the total the order is the same as for Very Afraid, and fear of public speaking drops back to third place.

Detailed results also were provided in an Acrobat .pdf file which you can download. They tabulated them with the following categories:

Gender (Female or Male)
Party ID (Democrat, Independent, Republican)
Race, which should be ethnicity (Black, Hispanic, White)
Age (18-29, 30-44-45-64,65+)
Family Income $ thousands (Under 40, 40-80, 80-100, 100+)
Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)

Today I’ll just discuss those for gender. The sample for Snakes 517 women and 474 men. To see if a difference is significant, we need to compare it with the margin of error, which for 474 and 95% confidence is 4.5%.

For Very Afraid, women and men have rather different fears, as shown above in a fourth bar chart (sorted by rank for women). For women the top five fears are:

1. Snakes (44%)
2. Heights (30%)
3. Spiders (25%)
4. Public speaking (24%)
5. Being closed in a small space (20%)

For men the top five fears [and difference re women] are:

1. Heights (19%) [-11] and Snakes (19%) [-25]
2. Public speaking (16%) [-8]
3. Spiders (13%) [-12]
4. Being closed in a small space (10%) [-10 ] and Flying (10%) [-8]
5. Needles (10%) [-2]

Heights came in first, followed by snakes. Note that public speaking came fourth for  women and second for men, contradicting the often seen claim that it always ranks first. At least twice as many women as men were scared of snakes, mice, and being closed in a small space. The difference of 2% for needles isn’t significant, but the other six are.   

For A Little Afraid, women and men also have rather different fears, as shown above in a fifth bar chart. For women the top five fears are:

1. Public speaking (38%)
2. Spiders (33%)
3. Heights (32%)
4. Being closed in a small space (31%)
5. Snakes (28%)

For men the top five fears [and difference re women] are:

1. Snakes (35%) [-7]
2. Public speaking [-5] and Heights [1] a tie (33%)
3. Spiders (25%) [-8]
4. Being closed in a small space (24%) [-7 ]
5. Flying on an airplane (22%) [-3 ]

More men than women were afraid of snakes.  At least twice as many women as men were scared of mice.

For Total Afraid, women and men again have rather different fears, as shown above in a sixth bar chart. For women the top five fears are:

1. Snakes (72%)
2. Heights and Public speaking tied (64%)
3. Spiders (58%)
4. Being closed in a small space (51%)
5. Mice (45%)

For men the top five fears [and difference re women] are:

1. Snakes (54% [-18]
2. Heights (52%) [-10]
3. Public speaking (49%)  [-13]
4. Spiders (38%) [-20]
5. Being closed in a small space (34%) [-17 ]


At least twice as many women as men were scared of mice. The largest gender difference was for Spiders [-20%].

An image of a viper is from Wikimedia Commons.

Goodbye Glossophobia - an April Fool’s Day satire

Yesterday evening on the Huff Post Comedy Blog John Malik posted an April Fool’s Day article titled Goodbye Glossophobia. He described a fanciful new anxiolytic drug called Extrovertialis that briefly could make a speaker as confident as the legendary Theodore Roosevelt.

I’ve shown above how a marketing campaign would arrange some of those lurid purple pills in a letter formation. John cautioned that possible side effects for Extrovertialis include:

"...impressions of arrogance, conjunctionitis, mild incontinence, temporary blindness, potentially fatal levels of conceit and an occasional night sweat.”

Bully! The 1907 stereograph image of Teddy speaking came from the Library of Congress.