Guardian Angels and Satan are paranormal beliefs the 2016 Chapman Survey of American Fears wouldn’t touch with a ten-foot pole

The 2016 Chapman Survey of American Fears included nine questions about Paranormal Beliefs, which are shown on pages 56 to 59 of the detailed results.

The general question was: “Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statements” and those nine statements were:

Aliens visited Earth in our ancient past.
Aliens have come to Earth in modern times.
Fortune tellers, and psychics can foresee the future.
Places can be haunted by spirits.
Bigfoot is a real creature.
I have been protected by a guardian angel.
Ancient advanced civilizations, such as Atlantis, once existed.
Some people can move objects with their minds.
Satan causes most evil in the world. 

For each question people were to answer with one of the following five levels:

1] Strongly Disagree

2] Disagree

3] Don’t Know

4] Agree

5] Strongly Agree

There also was a category of Refused for those who did not reply to a question.

Results were reported on October 11, 2016 in a blog post titled Paranormal Beliefs. It included a graphic showing the sum of Agree and Strongly Agree for seven statements, which were:

Places can be haunted by spirits. 46.6%
Ancient advanced civilizations, such as Atlantis, once existed. 39.6%
Aliens visited Earth in our ancient past. 27.0%
Aliens have come to Earth in modern times. 24.7%
Some people can move objects with their minds. 19.1%
Fortune tellers, and psychics can foresee the future. 14.1%
Bigfoot is a real creature. 13.5%

They omitted the other two, I have been protected by a guardian angel, and Satan causes most evil in the world. Why might that be? Chapman University is a church-related school - it is connected with both The Christian Church (Disciples of Christ) and The United Church of Christ. I suspect they decided those religion-related questions were on topics they didn’t want to touch with a ten-foot pole - because of paranoia that they might upset university or church leaders. 

Comparison with the detailed survey results listed below shows that the numbers are slightly different than the Rescaled Percents [shown in square brackets], which were calculated via multiplying by a factor of 100/[100 - Percent Refused]. I also showed the original Percents (in parentheses). The 19.1% for Some people can move objects with their minds is the same as the original percent, too small, and wrong.

I have been protected by a guardian angel. NOT SHOWN [52.9%] (51.7%)
Places can be haunted by spirits. 46.6% [45.9%] (44.8% )
Satan causes most evil in the world. NOT SHOWN [41.2%] (40.3%)
Ancient advanced civilizations, such as Atlantis, once existed. 39.6% [40.1%] (39.1%)
Aliens visited Earth in our ancient past. 27.0% [25.8% ] (25.2%)
Aliens have come to Earth in modern times. 24.7% [23.8%] (23.2%)
Some people can move objects with their minds. 19.1% [19.5%] (19.1%)
Fortune tellers, and psychics can foresee the future. 14.1% [13.5%] (13.2%)
Bigfoot is a real creature. 13.5% [13.1% ] (12.8%)

In a October 23, 2015 blog post titled A Somewhat Haunted World - Paranormal Beliefs in the 2015 Chapman Survey on American Fears, I discussed how just reporting the sum for Agree and Strongly Agree was insufficient and misleading - the sum for Disagree and Strongly Disagree also was highly relevant. 

A bar chart shows the sums for Agree (blue) and Disagree (pink). Click on it to see a larger, clearer view. For just three paranormal beliefs the sum for agree actually is larger: I have been protected by a guardian angel (which is first), Places can be haunted by spirits, and Ancient advanced civilizations, such as Atlantis, once existed. For the other six paranormal beliefs the sum for disagree is greater than that for agree. An even more detailed chart also would include the percentages for Don’t Know.

The Chapman blog did include an October 11, 2016 post about Fear of Muslims in American Society, so talking about some other religious beliefs was OK.

The image of a logger holding a long pole was adapted from one found at the Library of Congress.

What is the government concealing from us? Paranoia in the 2016 Chapman Survey of American Fears

In the 2015 Chapman Survey of American Fears the most common fear was Corruption of government officials. (It also was this year, as I discussed yesterday). Based on that, this year’s survey also included ten questions in the scary category of Fears About Government’s Concealment of Information.

The general question was: “The government is concealing what they know about...” and the ten specific conspiracy questions were about:

Alien encounters
The 9/11 attacks
The North Dakota Crash
Obama’s Birth Certificate
Global warming
The JFK assassination
The moon landing
The death of supreme court justice Antonin Scalia
The origins of the AIDS virus
Plans for a one world government

For each question people were asked how they felt about that event, that is whether they:

A] Strongly Disagree

B] Disagree

C] Agree

D] Strongly Agree

There also was a category of Refused for those who did not reply to a question. Results were reported on October 11, 2016 in a blog post titled What Aren’t They Telling Us? It included a vertical bar chart showing results for the sum of Agree and Strongly Agree, which were:

The 9/11 attacks 54.3% [54.0] (52.2%)
The JFK Assassination 49.6% [50.1] (48.4%)
Alien encounters 42.6% [42.0 ] (40.4%)
Global warming 42.1% [42.3 ] (40.7%)
Plans for a one world government 32.9% [32.6] (31.4%)
The North Dakota crash 32.5% [32.0 ] (30.1%) (I added this one)
Obama’s birth certificate 30.2% [31.3] (30.2%)
The origin of the AIDS virus 30.1% [29.0] (27.9%)
The death of supreme court justice Antonin Scalia 27.8% [27.3] (26.3%)
The moon landing 24.2% [23.2] (22.3%)

Comparison with the detailed survey results shows that the numbers listed above are slightly different than the Rescaled Percents [shown in square brackets], which were calculated via multiplying by a factor of 100/[100 - Percent Refused]. I also showed the original Percents (in parentheses). The charted number for Obama’s birth certificate just is the original Percent, which clearly is wrong.  

They tried to add a nonexistent event as a control to this survey, but unfortunately failed:

“Perhaps most indicative of the conspiratorial nature of Americans is the tenth conspiracy theory we asked about…one which, to our knowledge, we created.

Respondents to the Chapman University Survey of American Fears were asked if ‘The government is concealing what they know about…the North Dakota crash.’ A third of Americans (33%) think the government is concealing information about this invented event.”

Referring merely to a North Dakota crash without specifying a date, city, or vehicle (plane, train, truck, etc.), was far too vague. Back on December 30, 2013 near Casselton, ND a grain train derailed and fouled the adjacent main track. Then 20 tank cars of another unit train carrying crude oil derailed, and 18 caught fire, and exploded. More than 400,000 gallons of oil were released, with damage estimated at 6.1 million dollars. The next day the TIME magazine web site had an article titled North Dakota Derailment Shows Dark Side of America’s Oil Boom. The federal National Transportation Safety Board investigated the crash and released a preliminary report.

In a October 23, 2015 blog post titled A Somewhat Haunted World - Paranormal Beliefs in the 2015 Chapman Survey on American Fears, I discussed how just reporting the sum for Agree and Strongly Agree was insufficient and misleading - the sum for Disagree and Strongly Disagree also was highly relevant. 

A bar chart shows the sums for Agree (blue) and Disagree (pink). Click on it for a larger, clearer view. For the 9/11 attack the sum for agree actually is larger, for The JFK assassination the sums are equal. For the other eight events the sum for disagree is greater that fifty percent, so only a minority are believers. For The moon landing almost three-quarters (74%) disagreed. 

The image was adapted from a well-known World War I recruiting poster.


UPDATE - November 1, 2016

An October 31st article in The New York Post by Michael Kaplan titled What America Fears More Than Evil Clowns did what you expect from tabloid journalism - it made up details about The North Dakota Crash question:

"To truly measure the level of paranoia — and the degree to which that response is completely knee-jerk — Bader asked respondents to opine on the North Dakota crash. He provided details of the crash, and nearly one-third of respondents believed it to be covered up by the government. That was before they realized that the North Dakota crash was completely fabricated."

In the 2016 Chapman Survey of American Fears public speaking was ranked 33rd out of 79 fears

On October 11, 2016 Chapman University released results from their third annual Survey of American Fears. There was a press release titled What do Americans Fear Most? Chapman University’s Third Annual Survey of American Fears Released, and another blog post titled America’s Top Fears 2016. The main part of the survey asked 1,511 U. S. adults “How afraid are you of the following...” for 79 different fears. Possible answers were:

A]  Not Afraid

B]  Slightly Afraid

C]  Afraid

D} Very Afraid

or E] Refused (did not answer)

According to their Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) web page, the margin of error was plus or minus three percent. For the sum of percentages for Afraid and Very Afraid there was a list of America’s Top Fears. The ten most common fears were:

1.   Corrupt (federal) government officials  60.6% (58.9%)

2.   Terrorist attack  41.0 (40.1%)

3.   Not having enough money for the future  39.9% (39.4%)

4.   Terrorism  38.5% (37.8%)
 
5.   Government restrictions on firearms and ammunition  38.5% (37.2%)

6.   People I love dying  38.1% (37.5%)

7.   Economic/financial collapse  37.5% (36.6%)

8.   Identity theft  37.1% (36.4%)

9.   People I love becoming seriously ill  35.9% (35.4%)

10. The Affordable Health Care Act/Obamacare  35.5%

Comparison with the detailed survey results shows that the numbers listed above are slightly larger than the Valid Percents (shown in parentheses), because they actually have been rescaled via multiplying by a factor of 100/(100 - Percent Refused). Where is public speaking on the list? It is 25.9% (25.5%) and way down at 33rd out of 79 fears. That is even lower than the 26th out of 89 fears found in the previous 2015 survey. 

I looked more carefully at the detailed results and prepared a set of bar charts of the Top Forty most common fears.

The first bar chart shows results for Very Afraid. (Click on it for a larger, clearer view). The most common fear was Corrupt government officials (28.9%), followed by Government restrictions on firearms and ammunition (19.0%). There was a tie for third between Not having enough money for the future and Terrorist attack (17.9%). Fourth was The affordable health care act (aka Obamacare) (17.5%), and fifth was Terrorism (16.9%). Public speaking was ranked 37th  (9.1%).

A second bar chart shows results for Afraid. The most common fear was Corrupt government officials (30.0%), followed by Identity theft (23.4%), Economic/financial collapse (23.3%), People I love becoming seriously ill (23.2%), and Credit card fraud (22.6%). Public speaking was ranked 31st (16.4%).

The third bar chart shows results for Slightly Afraid. The most common fear was Losing my data, photos, or important documents in a disaster (40.5%), followed by Becoming the victim of a property crime (40.2%), and Being hit by a drunk driver (39.4%). There was a tie for fourth place between People I love becoming seriously ill and Break-ins (39.2%). Economic/financial collapse was fifth (39.1%). Public speaking was 24th (34.7%).

A fourth bar chart shows results for the sum of Very Afraid and Afraid. The most common fear was Corrupt government officials (58.9%), followed by Terrorist attack (40.1%) and Not having enough money for the future (39.4%). Terrorism (37.8%) was fourth, and People I love dying (37.5%) was fifth. Public speaking (25.5%) was 33rd.

A fifth bar chart shows the Bottom Forty for the sum of Very Afraid and Afraid. The least common fear was Others taking behind your back (6.7%). Clowns (7.7%) were second, Ghosts (8.8%) were third, and Strangers (9.7%) were fourth. For fifth (10.0%) there was a tie between Zombies and Your significant other cheating on you. 

The sixth bar chart shows results for the grand sum of Very Afraid, Afraid, and Slightly Afraid. The most common fear was Corrupt government officials (80.8%), followed by Economic/financial collapse (75.7%). For third there was a tie (74.9%) between Not having enough money for the future and Terrorist attack. Fourth was People I love becoming seriously ill (74.6%), and fifth was Identity theft (74.5%). Public speaking was 31st (60.2%).

The Chapman survey also included questions about other topics like the paranormal, conspiracies, and Islamaphobia. I plan to cover some of these in other blog posts.

Missing the boat when chasing a joke

On May 20,1993 a broadcast of the TV comedy Seinfeld opened with a routine including the following oft-repeated joke:

“....According to most studies, people’s number-one fear is public speaking. Number two is death. Death is number two! Now, this means to the average person, if you have to go to a funeral, you’re better off in the casket than doing the eulogy.”

Chapter 4 of Joseph M. Reagle, Jr.’s 2015 book, Reading the Comments: Likers, Haters, and Manipulators at the Bottom of the Web opens with the following paragraph (on page 73) that apparently was meant to reference my May 19, 2011 blog post titled America’s Number One Fear: Public Speaking - that 1993 Bruskin-Goldring Survey:

“The fear of public speaking is supposedly so great that comedian Jerry Seinfeld once quipped that people at a funeral would ‘be better off in the casket than giving the eulogy.’ Is the basis for this quote true? Richard Garber, the blogger behind Joyfully Public Speaking, investigated and found that on a 1993 survey that asked people about their fears, 30 percent of those surveyed said they feared death, and 45 percent reported a fear of public speaking. However, although more people did report a fear of public speaking, they were never asked to compare it to death (Ref.1). Yet this quibble is easily forgotten in light of the keen anxiety many feel when they speak in public. They are afraid of disparaging comments that might arise in others’ thoughts or, worse yet, comments that might be furtively exchanged between their peers. In fact, professionals make a living studying ‘communication apprehension’ and treating ‘glossophobia’ from the Greek glossa (tongue) and phobos (fear).”

He incorrectly referred to this blog as being titled Joyfully Public Speaking. But his Reference 1 for chapter 4 actually referred to another blog post:

“1. Richard I. Garber, ‘The Fourteen Worst Human Fears in the 1977 Book of Lists: Where Did This Data Really Come From?,’ Joyful Public Speaking, October 27, 2009...” 

Did that 1993 survey inspire Seinfeld’s joke? Probably not. The report about that survey was published privately sometime in February 1993, and the joke appeared on May 20, 1993. The 1993 Bruskin/Goldring report was quite obscure, but the 1977 Book of Lists was a popular book with wide circulation. We can easily imagine a comedian looking in it for inspiration.  

Reagle’s version of part of the Seinfeld joke is a slight misquote that you would:

“...be better off in the casket than giving the eulogy.”

He didn’t bother to point out that death wasn’t number two in either survey. It was seventh in the 1977 Book of Lists, and fifth in the 1993 Bruskin-Goldring survey. 

A misleading infographic about fears from Dr. Oz The Good Life magazine

Page 32 of the October 2016 issue of Dr. Oz The Good Life magazine has an Halloween Special article by freelance writer Gina Roberts-Grey titled Fear Factor. That article ends on page 34 with an infographic titled These Are a Few of the Scariest Things. It lists ten percentages (for percent Very Afraid or Afraid) that were taken from the 2015 Chapman Survey on American Fears. For each fear the percentage also is shown via a donut chart with an icon in its center.  But she did not bother listing where those fears ranked from #1 to #89.  They actually are:

Terrorist Attacks    44.4%   # 4

Reptiles                    33.0%  #17

Tornadoes                31.4%   #20

Public Speaking      28.4%   #26

Heights                    28.0%   #28

Needles                    18.5%   #52

Germs                      16.5%   #55

Flying                       15.2%   #61

Blood                        12.2%  #70

Ghosts                        9.7%   #78

Note that only one fear is listed from the Top Ten, just three are from the Top Twenty, and only five are from the Top Thirty. The other five aren’t even in the Top Fifty, which means they are a long way from really being The Scariest Things. It’s a frighteningly silly list!

On June 25, 2016 I blogged about How could you spin the results of a fear survey where public speaking wasn’t even in the top 5, 10, or 20? Gina Roberts-Grey’s article is another example of leaving out the rankings. 

The image is an angry selfie of Rembrandt from the Library of Congress. 

How to visualize a Trumpload of loss from The Donald’s 1995 income tax returns

On October 1st the New York Times published first pages from three of Donald Trump’s 1995 state income tax returns showing that The Donald had reported an enormous loss - $915,729,293. How could we visualize this outrageously large amount of money?

Wikipedia says that a dollar bill has a thickness of 0.0043 inch. Put all that money in a stack, and it would be 3,937,636 inches tall. Divide that by 12 to convert to feet, and then by 5280 to convert to miles. That’s a 62 mile-high (or 100 kilometer) pile of dollar bills. 

62 miles has a special significance. It is the height for the Kármán line - the boundary between the earth’s atmosphere and outer space. So, a Trumpload would reach up to the very edge of space. Wow!

On October 2nd at LawNewz Robert Barnes wrote about how The New York Times likely broke law by publishing Trump’s taxes. Free speech is no excuse. He talked about Federal law, which clearly is NOT applicable to those state returns. Others foolishly referred to his article. On October 2nd Jane Genova blogged about Trump - Can He Bring Down NYT, Way Hogan Brought Down Gawker? On October 3rd at The Hill Joe Concha blogged about how New York Times forfeits ethics in publishing Trump taxes. Others thought and wrote more carefully. At the Tax Foundation on October 2nd, Joseph Henchman and Alan Cole described Five facts about the Trump tax return disclosure. At the Washington Post on October 3rd Callum Borchers wrote about how The New York Times risked legal trouble to publish Donald Trump’s Tax return.

Time lines and Gantt Charts

In a presentation we sometimes need to show the time sequence for a series of tasks involved in a project, like the blog post shown above. This can be done via a horizontal, stacked bar chart known as a Gantt Chart.  That chart is a tool commonly used in project management, and may be created using special software.

In July 2014 the Wrike blog posted What is a Gantt Chart for Project Management? (Infographic). On Sep 18, 2016 the Slideshop blog reposted that infographic.

Back in 2007 Dave Paradi blogged about PowerPoint Tip: Use Gantt chart for Timelines. More recently he showed how to Create a data driven Gantt chart (using Excel).

For a complicated project the entire Gantt chart may be confusing, so you might prefer to show the audience where you are on just a few of the tasks.